Zag's Frags.. Week 9

BroncoCountry.com is proud to bring you Zag's Frags.. musings and WAC football predictions from the irrepressible, irreverent and sometimes irrational Zagco. From Honolulu to Ruston, Moscow to Las Cruces and beyond, Zagco tells you exactly what you need to know about what is happening this week in the WAC.

ZAG’S FRAGS:  2007 WEEK 9

Copyright Zagco

 A WEEKLY LOOK AT WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE FOOTBALL

Good morning, Miss Ratched.

Zagco’s 44-6 on the year. 

Zagco’s penchant for being right when others are so wrong now stands at 88%, and he is on a 12 game winning streak.  Some of Zagco’s fans have recently asked him about his uncanny accuracy and winning streak, citing last year’s incredible string of correct picks.  “The Streak,” as it came to be known, reached 29 straight games, and it was snapped on the final play of the final regular season game, when Hawaii ’s puking quarterback panicked and threw a pick to an Oregon State defender.  The Streak is something that so many of us fondly remember, and it serves as a barometer that other prognosticators can use to measure their performance.  Zagco, however, is a man of the here and now, a man that thinks the words of McMurphy (Jack Nicholson’s character in the film classic One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest) best answer the inquiring pleas of Zagco’s fans:  “That's right, Mr. Martini. There is an Easter Bunny.”

SOME PEOPLE on Bronco Country have begun to question Zagco’s “loyalty.”  He’s been accused of being a “shameless self-promoter.”  Recent posts have inquired whether Zagco has been off his meds, whether he has been  posting under the influence, whether he truly has the best interest of the Broncos in mind, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.  Well, Zagco makes no apologies for his opinions or his posts.  As Coach Pete so aptly put it, Zagco does not take counsel of his fears, his naysayers or the unknown.  And while it may pain Zagco to say this, the Emperor has no clothes and Boise State has no defense.

Last weekend’s game was the second game in row that the Bronco Nation saw what was recently considered to be among the top defenses in the nations take it in the shorts.  As Zagco’s wife can attest, he could barely take it, yelling out things like “I must be crazy to be in a loony bin like this!”  The Bronco defensive interior looked weak again, La Tech’s receivers were finding open space in the secondary, and, especially in the first half of the game, it appeared that our late substitutions on defense were causing confusion and uncertainty for our own players.  While we settled down for awhile in the second half, allowing our occasionally mistake-prone offense (especially penalties) to finally put some separation between us and La Tech, our defense often looked like it was playing on its heels.  Our opponents have been stuffing the run so far up our butts that Dave Wilcox must know whether to take a crap or wind his wristwatch.  We even once again saw a team bust a huge run right up the freakin’ middle early in the second half, something that could be considered a brand image of sorts for this new Bronco defense.

Offensively, Carolyn Reynolds’s son, Jeremy Avery (“Peanut” to some), looked great.  He looked as strong on his twenty-first carry as he did on his first, and his moves are dynamic and his wheels look very fast.  He caught the ball very well.  Jeremy Childs was his usual, stellar self.  Titus Young continues to amaze.  Taylor Tharp looked awesome, and he’s now moved past Hawaii ’s Colt Brennan as the highest rated quarterback in the WAC.  The main offensive flaws, as Zagco sees them, are:  (1) penalties—we just killed ourselves with penalties; and (2) getting into second- and third-and-long situations too often, which Zagco feels is a combination of execution issues and playcalling that goes too east-west, gambling for a break around an edge or slanting inside (last week we tried those inside slant screens about 3 too many times.

Defensively, Boise State looks bad to mediocre lately.  Zagco believes we have talent, and he believes we should be playing better, but he’s not going to mince words for the politically correct:  We’ve got serious, serious problems on defense.  In addition to being pushed around up front, especially with quarterback keepers, draws, and delayed handoffs, La Tech’s receivers were finding lots of open space in the backfield, something that Zagco thought was actually worse in last week’s game than the Nevada game.  Dallas Dobbs played great, and Zagco frankly thinks he earned a starting position from his play in the game.  Without his plays on defense, who knows what would have happened. 

Other than Mr. Dobbs, Zagco didn’t really see anything he liked.  Fresno ’s got to be just licking its chops.  Other than licking the food crumbs off his mustache, Pat Hill loves nothing more than being able to pound the ball and control the clock, and this Bronco defense seems designed just for that kind of game plan.  Moreover, the proclivity we have for sending in player groupings on defense at the last possible second, only to watch them barely get set before the snap and have them looking around and asking for instructions, must end.  That’s a coaching issue, in Zagco’s view.  We need to be ready to go, everyone knowing their assignments, before the ball is snapped.  There’s no excuse for players coming into the game on defense with no clue on what they’re supposed to do.  Last week, Zagco saw a shot of Coach Pete shoving a player out onto the field and yelling at another coach who was yelling at someone else, clearly unhappy that that we did not have all our men on the field.  It looked hectic.  His head was bobbling around more than his bobblehead that came out last week.  Zagco’s memory is that it was a special team’s play, but it nevertheless exemplifies this problem we seem to have of late with substitutions.  Zagco hopes and prays that the team and defense fixes these problems this week.

There was lots of bellyaching last week on Bronco Country.  You had the critics going off in full force, almost gleeful that their moment had arrived.  Then, after the game was over, you had the personal attackers trying to shame the critics, calling them whiners, suggesting that they’d been drinking or not taking their meds, and other wonderful, ad hominem attacks.  The personal attackers carried their banners, like Paladins marching off to a dragon’s lair.  They speak no evil, and they condemn those who do.  They are against negativity, as they see it, and they cannot understand others who see it differently.  Last Saturday night, the Paladins of Positive-ism mounted their white steeds after the game was won—brave souls they were—and laid siege to their archenemies, known as Those Who Speak of Negative Things.  The mix of sanctimony on one side of the wall and mockery on the other side of the wall was toxic.  Zagco loved every second of it. 

Zagco got hit several times by the Paladins of Positive-ism, although many of them try to disguise their attacks by making somewhat indirect, obtuse references to “the whiners,” similar to how you might hear the ladies in the church quilting circle talk.  Even Management came after Zagco, asking him to back off the discussion of whether the media should report news about player injuries.  Another poster suggested that Zagco’s belief that the media should always report news that it has confirmed in a reportable way (short of national security matters) was akin to suggesting that the British media should have reported the Normandy Invasion before it occurred, because it knew about it.  Seriously.  There were others arguing, in effect, that the media should not report news that isn’t positive and pre-approved by Coach Pete.  The whole thing was Orwellian.

While Zagco thinks Ian Johnson is a great, great player, and he’s sad that Ian is not playing and is suffering from another bad injury, he hardly thinks player injuries on Boise State’s football team, even to star players, rise to the level of D-Day in WWII, and he also doesn’t think that the media or Bronco Country are agents of Boise State, taking their marching orders from Coach Pete or Gene Bleymeier.  If and when that happens, count Zagco OUT. 

Based on Coach Pete’s after-action report and the media’s account of the timeline of Ian’s condition, it seems very clear that no one really knew what was going on, until Friday, i.e., there was no reportable news.  Thus, the suggestion that this was known by the media and hidden from the public by the media is clearly off base.  Rumors, no matter how credible, and reportable news is not the same thing.  Zagco is relieved, and he’s happy that Boise State seems to be running a tight ship.  Kudos to everyone involved.

Frankly, Zagco thinks people need to really get a grip on this stuff.  The media is NOT Boise State ’s publicity arm, no more so than the Washington Post was President Nixon’s press secretary.  If any of you people think that Mike Prater or Chad Cripe should be running their stories by Coach Pete before they’re published (like the Statesman used to do with Micron stories) or only writing positive stories about Bronco football, Zagco suggests that you quickly pack your bags and move to Cuba , where you ought to just love the media.  This recent obsession with reflexively dissing the local sports media and every single ESPN announcer that calls or comments on our games is sooooo tedious, so predictable, and so stupid!  Let it go.

Moreover, the idea that Boise State ’s players and coaches come on Bronco Country and take their cues on how they’re doing and how they should feel from the posts is preposterous.  Any player or coach that doesn’t understand the nature of message boards and fans should be playing intramurals, not Division I college football.  Zagco can only speak about the players and coaches he’s known, and he can say without exception that while they might take a gander now and then, they hardly concern themselves with this stuff.  They’re busy people.  Parents can be harder to deal with, because they often can’t stop themselves from reading and taking things too seriously.  That’s a parent, though—always protective, always watching.  Zagco can dig that—he tries to be sensitive to the parents, especially when he knows they are present.  The players that Zagco’s known over the years always seem to know and understand fans and all that comes with fans better than fans themselves.  They get it.  Sadly, some fans don’t seem to get it and take this message board thing too seriously.

This is not the first time Scout and its agents have tried to keep Zagco down.  Zagco was censored last year by Scout.  He has received bizarre, threatening e-mails from anonymous posters.  Zagco’s advisors have asked him to not comment further on these legal matters.  Zagco complied with Management’s request last week, but he would like to say something to you people who attack other posters for stating their views:  Screw you!

Zagco is Zagco.  Zagco will say what he believes, and he will say things that will make you uncomfortable and want to lash out at him.  You know who you are.  Even now, as you read this, your blood boils, doesn’t it?  Your heart races a little faster, doesn’t it?  You hate Zagco.  You think you can take Zagco.  You wanna go?  You think maybe Zagco’s small, weak, and doesn’t know Kung Fu.  You want to hit him, don’t you?  You want to just beat the holy living crap out of him, don’t you?  You would feel better if you did, wouldn’t you?  Zagco dares you.  He dares you.

Zagco quivers in fear, wike a fwightened wittle bunny wabbit.  He plays possum with you.  Just when you think you’ve subdued him, he pops back up and yells:  “Screw you, you loser!”  When you bulrush him, ready to put all your might into one, final blow to his delicate head, he’s gone.  POOF!  Will-o’-the-Wisp!  But, you can hear him, cackling in the mist.  He’s right behind you.  No, he’s above you.  Wait, he’s underneath you.  HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!  Laughing.  Cackling.  Laughing at YOU….

Zagco will say what’s on his mind, and if you don’t like it, fine.  Zagco congratulates you on holding a different opinion.  What a big boy you are!!! 

Because Zagco has such a big heart, he offers this unsolicited advice to you, free of charge:  If you spent less time getting angry about anonymous Internet message board posts and more time articulating your point of view in a way that might influence others, you might get somewhere.

Finally, Zagco’s a team player, but he doesn’t salute authority for the sake of it, like so many followers do.  He doesn’t “get along to go along” like so many butt-kissers do.  If Coach Pete went out and crapped in the middle of the road, Zagco wouldn’t do it.  Some of you would—don’t deny it; you’re already unsnapping your pants and walking outside.  If thinking and responding in a substantive way hurts your head too much and you would rather insult other posters, suggest fans are not “real fans,” and act all high and mighty like Aphrodite, then fine—there’s always a need for more clay pigeons.

By the way, Rizzo and Chaka-kan pass their best along to all of you.  They’re back down in Columbia right now, trying to raise some venture capital from some old friends we made back in the Eighties, when we had that business selling Nagels in the Third World .  They both plan on being back in SoCal on Wednesday, and Rizzo is going to drive up to Fresno with Linda Evangelista (his cousin) to see the game.  Chaka-kan’s not going because he told his mom that he would come over and rake the leaves.  They’re hoping to raise enough capital to finance a remake of the classic film “Used Cars,” and they seem happy now that England Dan and John Ford Coley are working on a re-make of Cutting Crew’s “Died in Your Arms.”  Apparently, the Russians agreed to be “hands off” on production.  Rizzo continues to think that the Broncos will right the defensive ship, but Rizzo’s always been an optimist of sorts.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v. Utah State Aggies
Where:  Logan , Utah
When:  Saturday, October 27, 2007, at 1:00 pm MT (ALT)

Some Bronco fans were singing the wonders of La Tech after the game last Saturday:  “They’re athletic.”  “That Coach Dooley is a good coach.”  BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.  Every time Boise State underperforms (Washington, Wyoming, Nevada, La Tech), there is a chorus from some fans that our opponent somehow is really a very, very good team, and that they’ve just not shown it against the other teams they’ve played.  Whatever.

Offensively, the Bayou Bulldogs are 7^th overall in the WAC with 336.9 yards per game, just 10 yards better than 8^th place San Jose Can You See.  La Tech gains an average of 155.6 yards rushing per game, dead middle of the pack in the WAC.  They get 181.1 yards through the air, second to last in the WAC.  They are 7^th in the WAC in points per game, at 20.4  

• Against Boise State ’s defense, La Tech’s bottom-feeding WAC offense put up 463 yards, 137% of their average.  They gained 255 through the air (141% of average), and 208 yards on the ground (134% of average).  They scored 31 points (152% of average).

Defensively, the Bayou Bulldogs are 4^th in the WAC, giving up 395.6 yards per game, just barely behind 3^rd place Fresno .  They are the worst in the WAC in pass defense, giving up 280 yards per game through the air.  They are second best in the WAC in rush defense, giving up a miserly 115.6 yards per game on the ground.  La Tech gives up 28.7 points per game, 4^th in the WAC.

The Logan Aggies have the worst offense in the WAC, gaining just 253.9 yards per game.  Of that, they gain 134.4 yards through the air, worst in the WAC, and they gain 119.4 on the ground, which is 6^th in the WAC.  On defense, the Aggies are also the worst in the WAC, giving up 447.6 yards per game.  They give up 262.4 yards through the air, 7^th in the WAC, and 185.1 yards on the ground, also 7^th in the WAC.  Utah State scores 20 points per game (8^th in the WAC) and gives up 35.6 points per game (7^th in the WAC)

Individually, La Tech is led on offense by a two-headed running attack, Patrick Jackson (117-499-4.3-5TDs) and Daniel Porter (54-394-7.3-3TDs), both of whom are in the WAC’s top 10 runners.  Zagco thinks Bulldog quarterback Zac Champion is solid when he plays within the system.

Utah State ’s sole player of note is special teams demon (and receiver) Kevin Robinson, who is the WAC’s all-purpose yardage leader with 1,458 yards through 7 games.  His contributions are heavily weighted towards special teams.

Zagco is tempted to pick Utah State to win this game.  It’s a home game.  They are winless at 0-7, but they’ve played some close games.  La Tech is coming off a big let down against Boise State .  Utah State came close to knocking off Nevada last week, even though they were dominated statistically. 

The more Zagco thinks about this game, knowing that La Tech is probably the “safe bet,” the more he thinks this will be Utah State ’s week to finally get off the Shneid.  Playing at home, and assuming that mistake-prong Aggie quarterback Leon Jackson will play within the system and get Kevin Robertson involved, Zagco thinks the time is ripe for our little friends down Logan way to get a “W.”  La Tech is primed for a letdown on the road.

Utah State will defeat La Tech.

Idaho Vandals v. Nevada Wolf Pack
Where:  The Biggest Little City in the World
When:  Saturday, October 27, 2007, at 2:00 pm MT

Zagco recently visited Moscow in an attempt to better understand what makes Idaho so crappy year after year.  While he was unable to conclusively answer that question, he did find himself one evening being served whiskey and wine by a lovely barmaid at the Corner Club who wore a striking silver, braided chain and locket.  This barmaid, who everyone calls Vandy because of her loyalty to the Tribe from the North, had apparently become quite close to Dennis Erickson.  This relationship apparently blossomed during the many, many hours Coach E  is rumored to have spent at this watering hole.  Erickson’s sudden departure for Arizona State left not only the Vandal football team, Vandal boosters and the owners of the local bars heartbroken, it also devastated the trusting Vandy.  After hearing the tearful story of this fine girl, Zagco decided to write her a song:

There's a port on a western bay
And it serves a hundred ships a day
Lonely Vandals pass the time away
And talk about their homes

And there's a girl, in this harbor town
And she works, laying whiskey down
They say "Vandy, fetch another round"
She serves them whiskey and wine

The Vandals say "Vandy, you're a fine girl
What a good wife you would be
Yeah your eyes could steal a sailor
From the sea."

Vandy, wears a braided chain
Made of finest silver from the north of Spain
A locket, that bears the name
Of a man that Vandy loved

He came, on a summer's day
Bringing gifts, from far away
But he made it clear, he couldn't stay
No harbor was his home

The sailors said "Vandy, you're a fine girl
What a good wife you would be
But my life, my lover, my lady
Is the sea."

At night, when the bars close down
Vandy walks through a silent town
And loves a man, who's not around
She still can hear him say, she hears him say

"Vandy, you're a fine girl
What a good wife you would be
But my life, my lover, my lady
Is the sea"  

Offensively, the Vandals are 6^th in the WAC, gaining 365.4 yards per game.  Through the air, the Vandals are 6^th in the WAC with 190.1 yards per game.  They gain 175.2 yards on the ground, 4^th in the WAC.  Idaho averages 23.5 points per game, 6^th in the WAC.

Defensively, the Vandals are 7^th in the WAC, giving up 423 yards per game.  They give up 266.8 yards through the air (8^th in the WAC) and 156.2 yards on the ground (5^th in the WAC).  Idaho gives up 37 points per game, 8^th in the WAC.

Anyone who has paid attention to Idaho , especially since freshman quarterback Nathan Enderle went down, knows that Idaho has no passing game.  Last week, against New Mexico State ’s craptastic defense, Idaho gained 212 yards through the air.  The week before, against Fresno , they gained 144 yards.  Before that, against San Jose Can You See, they gained 68 yards through the air.  Even when Enderle was playing, they struggled with the pass.  Idaho ’s strength is their running attack on offense, with freshman sensation Deonte Jackson, who leads the WAC with 929 yards rushing.

Nevada is 2^nd in total offense in the WAC with 509.4 yards per game.  They gain 275.3 yards through the air (4^th in the WAC) and 234.1 yards on the ground (1^st in the WAC).  Nevada scores 37 points per game, 3^rd in the WAC.

Nevada is a different story on defense.  They are 8^th overall in defense, giving up 433.6 yards per game.  They give up 187.9 yards through the air, which is ironically the best in the WAC.  On the ground, they give up a whopping 245.7 yards per game, the worst in the WAC by a large margin.

Thus, Idaho’s strength—the running game on offense—is set up perfectly to play against the WAC’s worst overall defense and its worst rushing defense.  Idaho would be crazy to do anything more than try to run the ball to death in this game.

But they will.  Idaho will try to throw.  Idaho ’s coaches will have them throwing passes like Dan Fouts on acid, going deep for the hell of it.  Mark Zagco’s words:  Idaho ’s coaches will do something very, very stupid. 

Even if Idaho runs like a Woody Hayes-coached team, they’re not going to stop Nevada’s freshman quarterback, Colin “Crazy Legs” Kaepernick (a natty dresser with those Angus Young-esque britches), bruising running back Luke Lippincott (113.1 ypg), and dangerous receiver Marko Mitchell (81.1 ypg).  Nevada ’s defense might even come alive this week against Idaho ’s one-dimensional offense.  The biggest question in Zagco’s mind about Nevada is whether their fans will show up?

Nevada will defeat Idaho .

New Mexico State Gaggies v. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Where:  The Rock
When:  Saturday, October 27, 2007, at 10:00 pm-ish MT

The Rainbow Warriors—a team that lights up like a pinball machine and pays off in silver dollars—return to action this week after taking last week off to rest up and recover after its brutal early schedule, consisting of two I-AA teams that they had to play at home.  Like clockwork, New Mexico State shows up, looking like a cheap hooker trolling for action on Hotel Street with sailors on shore leave.  The Gaggies’ pimp, Hal Mumme, is only too glad to see how June Jones does it—he’s the freakin’ master of the quickie, after all; high returns, high risk!   Slam, bam, thank you ma’am!!!   Better pack the antibiotics, boys!!!  There’s going to be more scoring going on than you normally see with the bridesmaids after a wedding reception!  Ducks on a pond!!!!

Anyhoo, this ain’t no nightclub; this is a sports column! 

New Mexico State got back its quarterback, Chase Holbrook, last week, and he got them back into their groove against Idaho .  New Mexico State is 4^th in the WAC with 410.1 yards per game in total offense.  They gain 316.9 yards through the air (2^nd in the WAC) and 93.2 yards on the ground (7^th in the WAC).  Gaggie running backs Tony Glynn (68-390-5.7-3TDs) and Justine Buries (98-369-3.8-2TDs) are 9^th and 10^th in the WAC in rushing, but in reality the Aggie running game is just a non-factor.  The Gaggies average 25.5 points per game, which is 5^th in the WAC and is pulled down by the shutout in Boise .

Meanwhile, back on Coruscant, the Rainbow Warriors are 1^st in the WAC in total offense, at 538.6 yards per game.  They get 464.4 yards through the air (1^st in the WAC) and 74.1 yards on the ground (8^th in the WAC, just ahead of San Jose Can You See).  Hawaii ’s running game is terrible.  They really lost a valuable dimension to their offense when they lost those two huge backs from last year to graduation.  Still, Hawaii averages 52.1 points per game (1^st in the WAC).

Defensively, Hawaii is second in the WAC, getting ever so close to replacing Boise State atop the standings.  One more week….  Anyhoo , Hawaii gives up 324.1 yards per game.  Of that total, 218 yards comes through the air (4^th in the WAC) and 106.1 comes on the ground (1^st in the WAC).  Hawaii gives up 23.7 points per game (2^nd in the WAC).

Zagco thinks Hawaii has not been well-served by its crappy schedule.  They nearly lost to La Tech on the road, needing some luck and overtime to pull out a win, and they also should have lost to San Jose Can You See on the road, needing an epic late comeback and another overtime to eke out a win.  Hawaii needs to get going.  Zagco really thought they’d hang a hundred on someone by now.  The pollsters have not punished them too much, but there is a vibe out there you pick up listening and reading national sports media about Hawaii ’s schedule and close calls.

Hawaii’s main weaknesses appear to be their running game on offense, Colt Brennan’s health and sudden proclivity for throwing picks (10 on the year, even with sitting out for quite a bit), an offensive line that has not allowed Hawaii’s backs to run for much and has given up 13 sacks and a number of other hits after the throw, and a defense that appears to tire late in games.  Regardless of all that, it remains a fact that Hawaii ’s passing game is super dangerous, and that  its fleet of receivers (Davone Bess, Ryan Grice-Mullen, Jason Rivers, and C.J. Hawthorne) is flat awesome.  They can score in a hurry and wipe out earlier mistakes.

New Mexico State’s only hope is that Chase Hollbrook limits his mistakes (he didn’t throw a single interception against Idaho after throwing 11 in the 5 games he played) and gets the ball to speedy receiver Chris Williams, who can be a game changer.

Zagco has no doubt that this is going to be a fun game.  Hal Mumme is going to try to impress his master by throwing the ball as much as possible.  Zagco wouldn’t be surprised if he tried to get the refs to allow Chase Hollbrook to throw two balls, one in each hand.  This lovefest should be an offensive explosion that will put arena football to shame.  In the end, New Mexico State will not have the defense or offensive line to control the game, and the master will defeat his fawning apprentice.  The Run and Shoot Yourself in the Foot offense will win the day.

Hawaii will defeat New Mexico State .

Boise State Broncos v. Fresno State Bulldogs
Where:  Fresno , Cali
When:  Friday Night, October 26, 2007, at 7:00 pm MT (ESPN 2)

Boise State has the 3^rd best total offense in the WAC, at 494.6 yards per game.  The Broncos gain 289.1 yards through the air (3^rd in the WAC) and 205.4 yards on the ground (2^nd in the WAC).  Boise State averages 42.9 points per game (2^nd in the WAC).

Defensively, the once-nationally ranked Broncos remain the best in the WAC, giving up 322.6 yards per game.  They give up 187.9 yards through the air (tied with Nevada for 1^st in the WAC) and 134.7 yards on the ground (3^rd in the WAC).  They’ve been in a defensive freefall the last two weeks, however, giving up a grand total of 1,102 yards in offense, including 604 on the ground and 498 through the air.  In both games, huge runs right up the gut happened in the third quarter, after fans expected the defense to come out fired up to atone for its poor first half play.  Boise State ’s defense has looked flat-out bad since it reached its zenith against New Mexico State in Week 7.

Meanwhile, down Fresneck way, the Cali Bulldogs seem to be finally caring about WAC football, something that has always been lacking during Pat Hill’s otherwise impressive tenure at the helm of the Central Valley ’s collegiate team of choice.  Offensively, the never razzle-dazzly Bulldogs are 5^th in the WAC in total offense, at 391 yards per game.  They gain 186.6 through the air (7^th in the WAC) and 204.4 yards on the ground (3^rd in the WAC, just one yard behind Boise State ).  Fresno averages 31.9 points per game (4^th in the WAC).

On defense, the Bulldogs are 3^rd in the WAC overall at 394.7 yards per game.  They give up 194.7 yards through the air (3^rd in the WAC) and 200 yards on the ground (8^th in the WAC).  Fresno gave up 702 total yards of offense to Nevada in Week 6, including 491 passing yards.  It was easy to chuckle about that at the time, but Boise State turned around and gave up almost as many yards to Nevada at week later in Boise .  Welcome to the club.

The statistics tell Boise fans that Fresno ’s main weakness is rushing defense.  The week after Fresno beat Nevada , they gave up 279 yards rushing to Idaho .  San Jose Can You see rushed for 140 yards against them last week, which is almost 200% of San Jose’s WAC-worst 71.8 yards per game rushing average.  Fresno has trouble stopping the run.

However, Zagco finds it VERY interesting that Nevada put up 491 yards passing against the WAC’s 3^rd best passing defense, especially after seeing Nevada’s passing game in Boise—it was okay, but it hardly looked that prolific.  When you consider that Boise ’s deep passing game has returned with a vengeance, thanks to Taylor Tharp, Jeremy Childs, Titus Young, and others, Boise State has no reason to think that they can’t throw the ball on the road at Fresno . 

Meanwhile, Fresno is licking its chops to tear into Boise State ’s defense.  Fresno has two good running backs, freshman Ryan Matthews (NOTE:  The WAC has some stellar freshman running backs!) (92-596-6.5-9TDs) and sophomore Lonyae Miller (93-402-4.3-6TDs).  They will pound the ball with those two.

Fresno quarterback Tom Brandstetter is pedestrian.  He’s 5^th in the WAC in efficiency, and he’s thrown only 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.  Clearly, Pat Hill doesn’t ask him to win games with his arm.  Zagco does not see him as a running threat, certainly not on the level of Crazy Legs (but, who is?).  None of Fresno ’s receivers are top 10 in the WAC, and Fresno lacks a representative on the WAC’s all-purpose yardage leaders.

Other interesting tidbits include:

• Fresno has the 3^rd best kickoff return game in the WAC, averaging 26.7 yards per return, better than Boise ’s 21.6 yards per return.  Fresno ’s A.J. Jefferson leads the WAC in kick returns with a 36.1 yard average.  Boise State fans have seen the wedge return scheme starting to work more often lately, so we expect Boise State ’s return game to get even better.

• Fresno and Boise are 1-2 in the WAC in punting, but Boise State fans have seen true freshman punter Brad Elkin come alive recently.  Fresno ’s Kyle Zimmerman leads the WAC with a 42.6 yard average.

• On punt returns, both teams are close and near the bottom of the WAC.  Boise State is finally on the “plus” side in the turnover battle (barely, though, at +0.14), whereas Fresno is 8^th in the WAC at -1.00 per game.  That’s a real problem for Fresno . 

• Boise State is 2^nd in the WAC in sacks, with 21, but Fresno is right behind at 19.   Boise State ’s Mike T. Williams and Fresno ’s Jon Monga lead the WAC with 5 sacks apiece.  Boise State ’s Mike Winterswyk has 3.5, and Fresno ’s Tyler Clutts has 4.5.

• Fresno is much better than Boise State in penalties, averaging 49.7 yards per game to Boise ’s 65.7.

• If fourth down conversions become an issue, Boise is far ahead of Fresno , at 56.2% to 37.5%.  Fresno also gives up 56.2% of the fourth down conversions its opponents attempt, whereas Boise State only gives up 30% of them.

• Boise and Fresno have equal red zone offenses, but Boise State ’s red zone defense is far worse and has allowed opponents to score in the red zone 100% of the time this year.  Yuck!

• Boise State converts 48.1% of its third downs (best in the WAC), whereas Fresno is well behind at 41.7%.

• Both Boise State and Fresno lead the WAC with only 9 sacks allowed.  Boise State fans have seen Kyle Brotzman’s accuracy and clutchness all year.  Fresno ’s kicker has missed 5 of 14 field goal attempts and 1 PAT.  Brotzman’s longest field goal this year was 40 yards, although fans saw him kick one MUCH further away in the Spring Game.  Fresno ’s Clint Stitser has hit a 47 yard field goal this year.

• Fresno ’s leading tackler is linebacker Marcus Riley, who has 68 tackles.  Bulldog freshman linebacker Ben Jacobs has 52, and a trio of defensive backs round out their WAC top 50 representatives.  Boise State is led by linebacker Kyle Gingg’s 52 tackles.  Safety Marty Tadman and corner Orlando Scandrick are also in the WAC’s top 50.

Zagco thinks the tale of the tape is pretty even.  In a vacuum, you’d probably pick Boise State to win based on the big numbers:  Better quarterback; slightly better overall offense; slightly better overall defense.  However, we’re not in a vacuum.  Boise State ’s defense has been shredded of late, and there is really no concrete evidence that they can fix it by Friday night.  Plus, Fresno ’s playing at home, playing to avenge so many losses to Boise State in the recent past, and playing for redemption from last year’s debacle of a season.  The raw numbers favor Boise State , but the intangibles favor Fresno .

Focusing on the numbers, the only super glaring differences favor Boise State .  First, Fresno ’s rushing defense is bad.  They are second to last in the WAC in that category.  Boise State is without Ian Johnson once again, but anyone who’s seen Jeremy Avery and D.J. Harper run the ball knows that the Bronco running game is in good, albeit young, hands.  Second, Bronco quarterback Taylor Tharp is the best quarterback in the WAC, far ahead of Fresno ’s signal caller.  Third, Boise State ’s receiving squad is head and shoulders above Fresno ’s offering.  Fresno ’s running attack is good, and it’s natural to think they will present a major challenge for Boise State ’s reeling defense, but the fact remains that Boise State has shown that they can shut down the run, and the Broncos are still the top defense in the WAC.

Fresno ’s advantage is more ethereal.  They’ve seen Boise State ’s defense give up a lot of yards the last two weeks, and they smell blood.  They’re playing at home.  They want it more, they think.  Boise State is struggling in some mental way.  Bronco fans are grumbling.  Etc.  That and a dollar will buy them a Coke.

Zagco’s going to take a chance.  He’s moved by the numbers.  He’s seen the best and worst of Boise State ’s defense.  He’s going to gamble that our coaching staff will get some of these defensive problems fixed.  The late substitutions, the players not knowing what they are supposed to do when they are sprinting out at the last second—those are problems the coaches can fix.  He’s going to gamble that our defensive players will pull their heads out of their butts and play strong, with discipline, poise, and purpose.  Whether or not these guys are real strong up the middle, we’ve seen them perform very well against Washington , Southern Miss and Wyoming , not to mention New Mexico State .  Technically, we’re not getting beat with straight ahead running; we’ve been getting beat with some misdirection, delayed handoffs, and naked bootlegs of sort.  That’s really more of a discipline issue.  We believe they are better than they’ve shown us the last two weeks.  Zagco is going to gamble, not because he’s a homer, but because he believes that Boise State ’s defense can actually be pretty dang good.  When they’re good, with the way the Bronco offense has been playing overall, Boise State is going to be hard for just about anyone to beat.

The one caveat Zagco brings to this is that his biggest fear is really not the defense—we’ve seen them at their worst; we’ve starred into the abyss and lived to tell the tale.  Zagco’s worst fear is that our offense keeps shooting itself in the foot.  When Boise State ’s offense plays mistake free (or near mistake free) football, it’s like liquid lightning.  Penalties, false starts, holds, too many east-west plays and movement that loses yardage or puts us in second and third-and-longs are our worst enemies on offense.  Toshi Franklin, a talented and capable performer at the wide receiver position, also needs to remember one thing:  Back in the day, there was a name for receivers who dropped the ball:  Defensive backs.  When the Broncos move north-south, stretch the field with a suddenly fantastic deep passing game, and use Avery and Harper to pound, juke, and run our way down the field laterally, we’re a high octane performance engine.  If this offense comes out with a killer, mistake-free persona, it is capable of putting some distance on the scoreboard and forcing opposing offenses to deviate from their plans.  Lately, the offense has performed very well, although they have failed to put games virtually out of reach much earlier, when chances presented opportunities.  It is Boise State ’s offense that Zagco is most concerned about, because they hold the key to victory.

After deep thought, reflection, an Irish Carbomb, and a careful examination of the raw data, Zagco believes the Broncos are going to pick up a big win at Fresno on Friday night.

Boise State will defeat Fresno .

Medication time.  Medication time.

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