ZAG’S FRAGS:
2007 WEEK 11
Copyright Zagco
A WEEKLY LOOK AT WESTERN ATHLETIC
CONFERENCE FOOTBALL
Zagco’s 51-7 on the year.
This week, Zagco modified his WAC statistical rankings.
Basically, he ranked the nine WAC teams based upon how much better
(percentage-wise) the best team in each category is than each team below it.
He used “1” as the base, meaning the best team in each category was
rated “1.” If the best team was
30% better than another team in a category, that other team would be rated 1.300
in the category. The lower the
overall number (“Strength Index”), the better the team.
For
example,
Hawaii
has the best total offense, with 532.8 yards of offense per game.
Hawaii
is rated “1” in the total offense category.
Utah
State
’s offense’s was the worst, with 274.7 yards of offense per game.
Thus,
Hawaii
’s offense gained 194.4% of
Utah
State
’s offense.
Utah
State
’s offense is rated 1.940 in the total offense category.
|
TEAM
|
STRENGTH
INDEX
|
|
Boise
State
Broncos
|
10.326
|
|
Hawaii
Rainbow Warriors
|
11.418
|
|
Nevada
Wolf Pack
|
12.805
|
|
Fresno
State
Bulldogs
|
13.291
|
|
Louisiana
Tech Bulldogs
|
13.293
|
|
New Mexico
State
Gaggies
|
14.329
|
|
Idaho
Vandals
|
14.903
|
|
Utah
State
Aggies
|
16.923
|
|
San
Jose
State
Spartans
|
17.151
|
The
9 categories are:
1.
Total offense;
2.
Rushing offense;
3.
Passing offense;
4.
Scoring offense;
5.
Total defense;
6.
Rushing defense;
7.
Pass efficiency defense;
8.
Scoring defense and
9.
Zagco’s Special Teams Index™.
Zagco
also modified Zagco’s Special Teams Index™ in the same basic manner.
In other words, instead of ranking the teams 1-9 in each category or
using the three tiers he used last week, he gave the top team in each of the
special teams categories a ranking of “1,” and the rest of the teams were
ranked according to how much better the top team was (percentage-wise) in the
category. Thereafter, Zagco added
together each of the six special teams categories for each team and then sorted
the sums in ascending order (lowest to highest).
Finally, he gave the top team a ranking of “1,” and ranked each
following team according to how much bigger their sum was (percentage-wise) than
the top team.
The
special teams categories used include the following:
1.
Kickoff returns;
2.
Net punting;
3.
Punt return average;
4.
Field goal percentage;
5.
PAT kicking; and
6.
Net kickoff coverage.
This
week’s Zagco’s Special Teams Index™ is quite different than last week’s
rankings. Whether or not it is
better is certainly subject to debate, but Zagco offers it as another way of
ranking each of the 9 WAC teams in the 6 special teams categories.
|
TEAM
|
ZAGCO’S
SPECIAL TEAMS™ INDEX
|
|
Fresno
State
Bulldogs
|
1.000
|
|
Idaho
Vandals
|
1.001
|
|
Utah
State
Aggies
|
1.006
|
|
Boise
State
Broncos
|
1.016
|
|
Hawaii
Rainbow Warriors
|
1.048
|
|
Louisiana
Tech Bulldogs
|
1.089
|
|
Nevada
Wolf Pack
|
1.122
|
|
New Mexico
State
Gaggies
|
1.128
|
|
San Jose
State
Spartans
|
1.160
|
As
you can see, the new special teams rankings are quite a bit different.
Fresno
State
is on top, which might not be hugely surprising.
Fresno
leads the WAC in kickoff coverage and kickoff returns.
The Cali Bulldogs are only weak in field goal percentage, where they are
6th in the WAC. The
Vandals are close behind, which probably does surprise a lot of people.
Idaho
actually leads the WAC in punt returns and PAT kicking, the latter of which is
a tie at the top with
Boise
State
.
Idaho
is only real weak in kickoff returns, where it is 7th in the WAC.
Utah
State
has the extremely talented return man Kevin Robinson to thank for their high
overall ranking.
After
calculating these rankings, Zagco thinks they look pretty close to his
subjective views, although he is surprised that
San Jose
State
comes out on the bottom in the overall WAC Strength Index.
However, that’s where the numbers place them.
His subjective view is that
San Jose
should be considered the 7th best team in the WAC, with
Idaho
and
Utah
State
trailing behind. After all,
San Jose
beat both of them.
Rizzo
and Chaka-kan had a terrific time in
Boise
last week, although Chaka-kan once again ran into the Stasi-like security
people, which was an ugly scene. They
ran into these two dudes from
New York
, who brought their kids to the game, traveling all the way from the Big Apple.
They’d become fans watching the Broncos play on television, and it was
their dream to see The Blue in person and watch a game.
They were permitted to spend quite some time playing around on the field
on the Friday before the game. Nice.
There
was a big breakthrough with England Dan and John Ford Coley last week too!
So far, they’d been resistant to adding a rap or hip hop song to their
big comeback album. Rizzo had been
pressuring them, but everytime he offered a song, they’d reject it for weird
reasons. Then, when Rizzo was
hanging out on Sixth and Main, waiting for a taxicab to pick him up after he got
completely shnockered at the Reef, he heard someone playing Tupac’s great song
“California Love,” which Rizzo has always thought was the Holy Grail of hip
hop (all due respect to the Sugar Hill Gang and Tupac’s other great songs,
like “Changes” and “Dear Mama”). Anyhoo,
Rizzo quickly penned some customized lyrics—slight modifications to make it
more credible for guys like England Dan and John Ford Coley to rap—and he
texted them.
They
loved it! As you read this column,
they are both in the studio down at
Venice
Beach
recording it.
Idaho
Love
England
Dan and
John Ford Coley
(R.I.P. Tupac, June
16, 1971 – September 13, 1996)
Idaho
love!
[1]-Idaho...knows how to party
Idaho...knows how to party
In the citaaay of Eagle
In the citaaay of good ol' Meridian
In the citaaay, the city of Boise
We keep it noisy! We keep it noisy!
[Verse One:
England
Dan]
Now let me welcome everybody to the wild, wild west
A state that's untouchable like Elliot Ness
The track hits ya eardrum like a slug to ya chest
Pack a vest for your Jimmy in the city of no rest
We in that potato state with a bomb butt prep beat
the state where ya never find a dance floor empty
And farmers be on a mission for them greens
lean mean money-makin-machines servin’ fiends
I been in the game for ten years makin’ rap tunes
ever since honeys was wearin’ Sassoon
Now it's '07 and they clock me and watch me
Diamonds shinin’ lookin’ like I robbed Liberace
It's all good, from Poky to tha Lake City
Your city is tha bomb if your city makin’ hay
Throw up a finger if ya feel the same way
England Dan puttin it down for
Idaho-i-a
[repeat 1]
[2]-Shake it, shake it, baby
Shake it, shake it, baby
Shake it, shake it, mama
Shake it Idaho
Shake it, shake it, baby
Shake it, shake it, shake it, shake it...
[Verse Two: John Ford Coley]
Out on bail fresh outta jail, Idaho dreamin’
Soon as I stepped on the scene, I'm hearin’ hoochies screamin’
Fiendin’ for money and juice
the life of a west side playa where cowards die and its all loose
Only in Idaho where we riot not rally to live and die
In Boise we wearin’ Chucks not Ballies (that's right)
Dressed in Locs and khaki suits and ride is what we do
Flossin’ but have caution we collide with other crews
Famous cause we program worldwide
Let'em recognize from Montpelier to Bonners Ferry
Bumpin’ and grindin’ like a slow jam, it's north end
So you know the row won't bow down to no man
Say what you say
But give me that bomb beat from England Dan
Let me serenade the streets of Boise
From Salmon to Lewiston
The Lake City and back down
Idaho is where they put they mack down
Give me love!
[rpt 1]
[England Dan] now make it shake...
[rpt 2]
[Outro: England Dan and John Ford Coley]
uh, yeah, uh, Nampa in tha house, uh yeah
Caldwell, Parma definately in tha house hahaha
Ketchum, Ketchum
[Tupac] hey, you know Boise is up in this
Wallace, where you at
yeah, Kuna, Kuna always up to no good
(John Ford Coley) even Orofino tryin to get a piece baby
Mountain Home, Mountain Home where ya at? yeah
Throw it up y'all, throw it up, Throw it up
Let's show these fools how we do this on that west side
Cause you and I know it's tha best side
yeah, That's riight
west coast, west coast
uh, Idaho Love
Idaho Love
New Mexico
State Gaggies v. San Jose Can You
See Spartans
Where: Do You Know The Way To
San Jose
?
When: Saturday, November 10, 2007,
at 2:00 p.m. MT (Altitude)
Right
off the bat, Zagco would like to say that he hopes that Spartans’ defensive
tackle Justin Willis is recovering from his frightening injury.
For several minutes last week, Bronco Stadium stood silent and watched as
he was taken off the field in an ambulance.
Early reports indicate that he was examined and released that night.
He appears to be okay, thank God. San
Jose Mercury News - SJSU defensive tackle released from hospital, 11/04/2007.
|
San Jose
State
|
Category
|
New Mexico
State
|
|
Rank
|
Stats
|
Stats
|
Rank
|
|
1.735
|
307.1
|
Total Offense
|
423.3
|
1.259
|
|
3.339
|
69.3
|
Rushing Offense
|
92.6
|
2.499
|
|
1.932
|
237.8
|
Passing Offense
|
330.7
|
1.389
|
|
3.244
|
16
|
Scoring Offense
|
25.5
|
2.035
|
|
1.326
|
406.6
|
Total Defense
|
425.9
|
1.389
|
|
1.711
|
175.4
|
Rushing Defense
|
156.5
|
1.527
|
|
1.185
|
123.7
|
Pass Efficiency Defense
|
145.8
|
1.397
|
|
1.519
|
31.6
|
Scoring Defense
|
35.5
|
1.707
|
|
1.160
|
7.728
|
Zagco's ST Index
|
7.447
|
1.128
|
|
17.151
|
|
TOTALS
|
|
14.329
|
On
paper,
New Mexico
State
looks like a winner in this game. They
have statistical advantages in 6 of 9 categories.
San Jose
struggles on offense, especially in scoring, where they are last in the WAC at
only 16 points per game.
Yet,
San Jose
is playing at home. They are a
better defensive team, and Zagco was very impressed with the lockdown abilities
of their corners, especially Dwight Lowery, against
Boise
State
’s wide receivers. The Broncos
were not able to really open up their passing game against
San Jose
, sticking mainly to inside stuff. Three
Spartans have accounted for 8 interceptions this year—cornerback Chris Owen
has 5, safety Jonathan Harris has 3, and All-American and Playboy All-American
corner Dwight Lowery has 3. Lowery
suffered a right calf bruise in the game, but appears to be okay to play next
week. Thus, the strength
of
New Mexico
State
plays against the strength of San Jose Can You See.
Moreover, without running back Tony Glynn (81 carries, 487 yards, 5.6
yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns), the Gaggies rushing attack will get even
worse, making them totally dependent upon Chase Hollbrook, who has thrown the
second most interceptions in the WAC this year (13).
New Mexico
State
has the poor man’s Colt Brennan (Chase Hollbrook), but it also lost its best
receiver (Chris Williams) and its second leading ground gainer (Tony Glynn).
Las Cruces Sun-News
- Mumme defends decision to run the ball, 11/04/2007.
The Gaggies are banged up.
Zagco
believes that the Bay Area Spartans will find a way to win this game.
Dick Tomey—a totally decent guy—is a solid coach, and signal caller
Adam Tafralis is a winner. The team
is reeling a bit, but they have not given up, and it is very hard to imagine
them giving up under Coach Tomey. The
Gaggies look a lot like a team on the edge.
They’ve suffered a lot of injuries, and Zagco gets the impression that
the fans are calling for Mumme’s snot towel.
San
Jose Can You See will defeat
New Mexico
State
.
Fresno
State
Bulldogs v.
Hawaii
Rainbow Warriors
Where: The Rock
When: Saturday, November 10, 2007,
at 10:00 p.m. MT (ESPN2)
|
Fresno
State
|
Category
|
Hawaii
|
|
Rank
|
Stats
|
Stats
|
Rank
|
|
1.380
|
386.1
|
Total
Offense
|
532.8
|
1.000
|
|
1.173
|
197.2
|
Rushing
Offense
|
73.2
|
3.161
|
|
2.433
|
188.9
|
Passing
Offense
|
459.5
|
1.000
|
|
1.658
|
31.3
|
Scoring
Offense
|
51.9
|
1.000
|
|
1.294
|
396.9
|
Total
Defense
|
338.9
|
1.105
|
|
1.991
|
204.1
|
Rushing
Defense
|
102.5
|
1.000
|
|
1.112
|
116.1
|
Pass
Efficiency Defense
|
107.3
|
1.028
|
|
1.250
|
26
|
Scoring
Defense
|
22.4
|
1.077
|
|
1.000
|
6.493
|
Zagco's
ST Index
|
6.817
|
1.048
|
|
13.291
|
|
TOTALS
|
|
11.418
|
Hawaii
enters the meat of its 2007 WAC schedule with a home game against
Fresno
State
. The Rainbow Warriors lead in 7 of
the 9 key statistical categories. The
two categories where our island brothers trail the Cali Bulldogs are rushing
offense and special teams, which is precisely where
Fresno
’s only hopes lie in this game.
The
good news for
Fresno
is that it should be at full offensive strength, with both of its running backs
and tight end Bear Pascoe (a freakin’ COOL name) ready to play on the Rock.
FresnoBee.com:
Fresno State Bulldogs: Running back Miller looks like he's a go, 11/6/2007.
Meanwhile,
Hawaii
has lost its top running back, Kealoha Pilares (294 yards and a 5.9 yards per
carry average). The Rainbow Warriors
will also be without defensive end Francis Maka (17 tackles and 1 sack).
UH's
RB Pilares, DE Maka sidelined - The Honolulu Advertiser, 11/7/2007.
Zagco, however, believes that the longer Colt Brennan gets away from his
injuries, the better he going to be.
Hawaii
’s fleet of running backs, all of whom are healthy, frighten and confuse Zagco.
This
game is
Fresno
sole remaining chance at proving itself to be a true upper echelon WAC team.
Zagco will credit them with defeating
Nevada
in
Reno
, but they must win this game in order to move out of purgatory.
Hawaii
will be challenged by
Fresno
’s running attack. Bronco fans
like to tease
Hawaii
about defense, but we must remember that
Hawaii
is second in total defense in the WAC, and it has the top rushing defense.
Let’s look at some common opponents:
·
Against
New Mexico State
,
Hawaii
gave up 442 yards, 77 of which were rushing yards.
Boise
State
gave up 89 total yards, -19 of which were rushing yards!
·
Against San Jose Can You See,
Hawaii
gave up 302 yards, 42 of which were rushing yards.
Boise
State
gave up 150 total yards, 50 of which were rushing yards.
·
Against La Tech,
Hawaii
gave up 410 yards, 223 of which were rushing yards.
Boise
State
gave up 463 yards, 208 of which were rushing yards.
So,
yes,
Boise
State
comes out on top, by a significant margin, in the head-to-head matchups.
Fresno
’s defensive numbers are heavily boosted by its home games against two I-AA
teams. Against Northern Colorado,
Hawaii
gave up only 182 total yards, 50 of which were rushing yards.
Against
Charleston
Southern,
Hawaii
gave up 311 yards, 72 of which were rushing.
Zagco believes
Hawaii
’s defense is good, but he believes they are not as good as their current
numbers show, in relation to
Boise
State
and a couple other WAC teams. He
also believes, from watching them, that Hawaii’s defense loses a lot of
“pop” as a game evolves—they come out on fire, but they seem to wear
themselves out a bit.
Zagco
thinks
Fresno
is going to give
Hawaii
a good game. He could see
Fresno
winning, but he thinks
Fresno
’s lack of a passing offense will hurt.
Fresno
could control the clock, and it could hurt
Hawaii
with its tremendous return man, A.J. Jefferson, who averages 36.1 yards per
kickoff return. In the end, however,
Fresno
is just not a come-from-behind team, and
Hawaii
’s offense at home will break
Fresno
’s will.
Hawaii
will defeat
Fresno
State
.
Louisiana
Tech
v.
Louisiana
State
Tigers
Where:
When: Saturday, November 10, 2007,
at 6:00 p.m. MT
Zagco
has grown to respect La Tech under Coach Dooley, but the Southern Bulldogs still
have a ridiculous schedule. This
week, as a reward for going on the road two weeks in a row and winning
conference games against Utah State and Ida
