In the companion article "Vegas Bettors: Nevada is Better than
BYU", we learned that the majority of bettors are putting their money on
Nevada rather than Boise State in the upcoming game this weekend. Is there
anything Boise State can do to pull off the upset and thwart the majority?
It's a tall order, but here goes. We know that Nevada leads the nation
in rushing and has piled up huge chunks of real estate all season long. So
that's a good place to start. If Wolf Pack runners are allowed to roam
free, busting through the Bronco line for 7-10 yards at a time (or in
quarterback Colin Kaepernick's case 60 yards at a time), it will be a long,
weary afternoon for the Boise State defense. Kaepernick is outstanding at
faking the football, so this style of offense shouts out for assignment
football. Either Boise State's defenders play it or they get burned--pure
and simple. In Boise State's 69-67 win over Nevada last season, the
Broncos were burned repeatedly.
Enter Darrell Acrey into the middle linebacker spot. Acrey has proven
to be a force this season and has greatly bolstered the Bronco run
defense. Acrey needs to stay home to be in position to nail Vai Taua
coming up the middle. Taua is 5-10, 225, fitting the perfect definition of
a "bowling ball" type of runner. Don't be fooled though, Taua
also has speed. Acrey and the other Broncos near Taua will need to hit him
low and hold on until he is down. Opponents have found out too many times
this season that any tackling technique that is less than perfect will result in
a big gainer. It would be a good idea if Acrey and many of his friends
meet to escort Taua to the turf. Taua will get his yards no doubt, but the
goal is to limit those yards per carry and make him work for his yards.
Kaepernick is one of the most talented running quarterbacks in the nation
and, as Bronco fans found out last year, if he gets outside he could easily be
next found in the end zone celebrating a Wolf pack touchdown. On straight
runs in which Kaepernick fakes to Taua before heading around the end, the Bronco
linebackers must stay at home in case he pays a visit to their territory.
Last year, I noticed he almost always will run to his right side (the left side
of the Bronco defense) but both Bronco LB's must be ready. When Kaepernick
drops back to pass, the Bronco ends must be sure not to over-pursue, leaving
Kaepernick a path through the Bronco pass rush to pick up a big gain on a
quarterback scramble. As with Taua, Kaepernick is going to get his
yards--you just don't want to see him get 60 in a matter of seconds.
Boise State's secondary has been stellar all season and nothing short of a
great afternoon is needed from this group. They will need to help out with
the rushing defense, but they cannot be lulled to sleep either. Nevada
will only need to connect on a few pass plays here and there to keep drives
alive and win the football game. If I'm the Bronco Defensive Coordinator,
I would also tell the guys to be alert for a halfback pass. If it is
obvious the Bronco secondary is aggressive in stopping the run, expect Nevada to
pull this play out of its bag.
It can be frustrating playing a running team as good as Nevada. You're
not going to get too many chances to stop them and they don't beat themselves
often. That's good advice for the Bronco defense as well: do not
give Nevada any more plays--they don't need any help. If a Nevada player
is out of bounds the Broncos need to be focused and not get stupid mental
penalties.
In summary then, play assignment football, gang tackle, hit low, wrap up, be
focused and alert for the halfback option and avoid drive-enabling penalties.
For the Boise State offense, we know that Kellen Moore can pass the football
and he's going to have to be sharp tomorrow afternoon. But this alone will
not get the job done for the Broncos. Nevada has held nearly all their
opponents to under 100 yards, including a negative 23 rushing yards for San Jose State last weekend. Fresno State ran for 106, but it wasn't nearly enough
to beat the Wolf Pack as Nevada won easily 41-28. Texas Tech only got 124
and Missouri 132, but both of those teams were able to win with superior passing
attacks. It would dictate, then, that the Bronco running game needs to get
a minimum of 125 yards or so to win and probably at least 150.
Nevada does allow passing yards, but that's only if the quarterback has time
to throw. Most of the time, a Nevada defender is either standing over a
sacked quarterback or they have greatly harassed the QB into making a poor
throw. Texas Tech and Missouri were able to pass the ball consistently and
those two teams possess two of the best quarterbacks in the country (Graham Harrell for Tech and Chase Daniel of Missouri). It is therefore incumbent
upon the offensive line that they hold their blocks and don't allow too many
sacks by the aggressive Wolf Pack defense. Moore needs to be aware of
where these tigers are and be ready to throw the ball away. An
incompletion is far more desired than a sack or an errant throw in
desperation. Moore must play intelligent football, get rid of the ball
quickly and not try to force anything. He likely won't have much time to
find a receiver, so the Bronco receivers must create space quickly to provide a
target for Moore. The Broncos may occasionally roll Moore out to cross up
the aggressive Pack and give him time to throw.
As is the case with the defense, the Broncos cannot commit turnovers and put
even more pressure on themselves. The Nevada defense will do plenty of
that as it is.
Turnovers are obviously always critical in a close game and if this one
indeed lives up to the billing, Boise State runners must wrap both hands on the
ball at all times. The Bronco special teams could make the difference in a
close game, but they must be careful to not try to do too much (i.e. run into
the kicker in an attempted block, fumble when trying to get a few more yards on
a punt or kickoff return, etc.)
If Boise State plays mistake-free football and puts on a tackling clinic,
their chances are better than the six previous Nevada victims. The Bronco
defense, meanwhile, must try to create turnovers on their own and stick to their
assignments. The Boise State corners must play shutdown football,
especially on third downs. Should Boise State stop the Pack on first and
second down creating a passing situation, those third down situations will be
all the more important.
So yes, Boise State can thwart the majority of college football fans who are
betting on Nevada. But it will take a complete effort over four
quarters. This one should be fun.