Boise
State
could tie
Arizona
State
for the second-highest preseason ranking for a non-automatic qualifying team in
history.
Boise
State
is averaging 12th in five major internet preseason polls, with a
high of #8 in the ESPN.com poll. The
Broncos are #9 in both the Vegas Insider and Rivals.com polls and 10th
in the SI.com poll.
Boise
State
is 15th when you average in 22 preseason polls.
The 1972 Sun Devils which, like Boise State, were a member
of the Western Athletic Conference, were ranked 12th in the preseason
Associated Press poll. The only
non-AQ team to top that was the 1985 Brigham Young team that was ranked 10th
in the preseason following their 1984 national championship.
While people can debate the merits of preseason rankings,
the fact remains that they matter greatly in determining which college football
teams reach the major bowl games and especially which teams have a legitimate
change at the national championship. Since
the Bowl Championship Series system began in the 1998 season, only one team (
Oklahoma
in 2000 at #19) began the season worse than #14 and played in the
BCS
National Championship. Seven of
those “national championship” contenders were #1 in the preseason poll and
five of them were #2. Thus, more
than half (12 of 22) of the
BCS
NC participants were ranked either first or second in the preseason poll.
Six more were ranked in the preseason Top 10.
Only four (The 2000
Oklahoma
team,
Ohio
State
in 2002, LSU in 2003 and
Ohio
State
in 2007) were not ranked in the preseason Top 10.
Still think it doesn’t matter?
Although the importance of preseason polls is glaring in
the
BCS
period, eight preseason #1 teams and seven #2’s from 1968-1997 wound up
either #1 or #2 in the final AP poll. Again,
that’s half of the teams (15 out of 30) that reached the top two at the
conclusion of the football season that were in the top two prior to the
beginning of the season. Only one
non-AQ team in college football history (the 1984 Brigham Young team) has
finished in the top two at the end of the season without being ranked in the
preseason.
Let’s look at the
BCS
Bowl teams for the 11-year period. There
have been a total of 26 “at-large”
BCS
Bowl berths in that time. Two of
those (Ohio State in 1998 and Florida in 2001) were preseason #1 teams.
Four more (Tennessee in 1999, Ohio State in 2003, Notre dame in 2006 and
Ohio State last year) were preseason #2’s.
Five others were preseason Top 10 teams.
So nearly half of the
BCS
at-large bowl berths went to teams that were ranked in the Top 10 before any
games had been played!
The general
assumption is that for a non-AQ team to make a
BCS
Bowl, they must be ranked in the preseason Top 30.
Utah
, which played in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl, was #20 in the preseason.
The 2006
Fiesta
Bowl
Champion
Boise
State
team, which defeated
Oklahoma
in the greatest college football game ever played, was ranked #30 in the
preseason. Hawai’i, which played
in the 2007 Sugar Bowl, was #23 preseason and Utah, which won the 2008 Sugar
Bowl, was ranked 29th in the preseason.
As pointed out above, only one non-AQ team has ever
finished in the top two in college football and only four
BCS
national championship participants have been ranked outside the Top 10 in the
preseason. Given the bias that
exists against non-AQ teams, they sure better be in that preseason Top 15 to
have any kind of chance of being in the
BCS
national championship game. And 2-3
games against the Top 25 is pretty much a prerequisite as well.
The first AP rankings will be released August 15 with the
first USA Today Coaches’ Poll released about the same time.
Below are those non-AQ teams that have been ranked in the
preseason as well as the top two teams in the final AP and
BCS
rankings each year from 1968-2008 and the preseason rankings of the
BCS
Bowl at-large teams.
Non-AQ Teams
Ranked Since 1968:
1968:
Arizona
State
#17 (WAC)
1970:
Arizona
State
#19 (WAC)
1971:
Arizona
State
#14 (WAC)
1972:
Arizona
State
#12 (WAC)
1973:
Arizona
State
#14 (WAC)
1974:
Arizona
State
#15 (WAC)
1976:
Miami
of
Ohio
#20 (
MAC
)
1977:
Arizona
State
#17 (WAC)
1981: BYU #16
(WAC)
1985: BYU #10
(WAC)
1986: BYU #18
(WAC)
1989: BYU #19
(WAC)
1990: BYU #16
(WAC)
1991: BYU #19
(WAC)
1993: BYU #19
(WAC)
1997: BYU #19
(WAC)
2000: TCU #20 (CUSA),
Southern Mississippi
#23 (CUSA)
2001:
Colorado
State
#24 (MWC)
2002:
Louisville
#17 (CUSA),
Marshall
#19 (
MAC
)
2003:
Colorado
State
#23 (MWC), TCU #25 (CUSA)
2004:
Utah
#20 (MWC)
2005:
Boise
State
#18 (WAC),
Fresno
State
#24 (WAC)
2006: TCU #22 (MWC)
2007: TCU #22 (MWC),
Hawai’i
#23 (WAC),
Boise
State
#24 (WAC)
2008: BYU #16 (MWC)
The top two
college football teams in the final rankings (with preseason ranking in
parenthesis)
1968—
Ohio
State
(#11) and USC (#2)
1969—
Penn
State
(#2) and
Texas
(#3)
1970—
Ohio
State
(#1) and
Texas
(#2)
1971—
Nebraska
(#2) and
Alabama
(#16)
1972—
Oklahoma
(#6) and USC (#8)
1973—
Alabama
(#6) and
Oklahoma
(#11)
1974—
Oklahoma
(#1) and
Alabama
(#4)
1975—
Ohio
State
(#4) and
Texas
A & M (#9)
1976—
Michigan
(#2) and
Pittsburgh
(#9)
1977—
Oklahoma
(#1) and
Texas
(NR)
1978—
Alabama
(#1) and
Penn
State
(#3)
1979—
Alabama
(#2) and
Ohio
State
(NR)
1980—
Florida
State
(#13) and
Georgia
(#16)
1981—Georgia (#10) and Clemson (NR)
1982—
Georgia
(#7) and
Penn
State
(#8)
1983—
Nebraska
(31) and
Texas
(#3)
1984—
Oklahoma
(#16) and BYU (NR)
1985—
Penn
State
(#18) and
Miami
of
Florida
(NR)
1986—
Miami
of
Florida
(#3) and
Penn
State
#6)
1987—
Oklahoma
(#1) and
Miami
of
Florida
(#10)
1988—
Miami
of
Florida
(#8) and Notre Dame (#13)
1989—
Miami
of
Florida
(#4) and
Colorado
#14)
1990—
Colorado
(#5) and Georgia Tech (NR)
1991—
Miami
of
Florida
#3) and
Washington
(#4)
1992—
Miami
of
Florida
(#1) and
Alabama
(#9)
1993—
Florida
State
(#1) and
Nebraska
(#8)
1994—
Nebraska
(#4) and
Penn
State
(#9)
1995—
Nebraska
(#2) and
Florida
#5)
1996—
Florida
State
(#3) and
Arizona
State
(#20)
1997—
Nebraska
(#6) and
Michigan
(#14)
BCS
:
1998—
Ohio
State
(#1) vs.
Tennessee
(#10)
1999—
Florida
State
(#1) vs. Virginia Tech (#6)
2000—
Florida
State
(#2) vs.
Oklahoma
(#19)
2001—
Miami
of
Florida
(#2) vs.
Nebraska
(#4)
2002—
Miami
of
Florida
(#1) vs.
Ohio
State
(#13)
2003—
Oklahoma
(#1) vs. LSU (#14)
2004—USC (#1) vs.
Oklahoma
(#2)
2005—USC (#1) vs.
Texas
(#2)
2006—
Ohio
State
(#1) vs.
Florida
(#7)
2007—LSU (#2) vs.
Ohio
State
(#11)
2008—
Oklahoma
(#4) vs.
Florida
(#5)
BCS
Bowl At-Large Teams:
1998—
Ohio
State
(#1)
Florida
(#3)
1999—
Tennessee
(#2)
Michigan
(#8)
2000—Notre Dame (NR)
Oregon
State
(NR)
2001—
Florida
(#1)
2002—USC (#20)
Iowa
(NR)
2003—
Ohio
State
(#2)
2004—
Texas
(#7)
Utah
(#20
2005—
Ohio
State
(#6)
Notre Dame (NR)
2006—Notre Dame (#2)
LSU (#8)
Michigan
(#14)
Boise
State
(#30
2007—
Georgia
(#13)
Hawai’i
(#23)
Illinois
(NR)
Kansas
(NR)
2008—
Ohio
State
(#2)
Texas
(#11)
Alabama
(#24)
Utah
(#24)