For the past seven years, BroncoCountry has featured a
simulation summary of what we can expect from the
Boise
State
football team each fall. E/A Sports
releases a computer software program called “NCAA Football” that is eagerly
anticipated by gamers around the country for its realistic play, images and
simulations. It has been a computer
sports software staple for years; we noticed something very striking beginning
in 2002.
In addition to the addictive manual play against a
competitor or against the computer, the software allows one to run a computer
simulation of one game, a season, and even what they call a “dynasty” (which
allows you to play seasons well into the future).
The staff at E/A Sports inputs thousands of variables, using such things
as . They get considerable feedback
for each school regarding their players and their abilities.
The computer whizzes at E/A account for home field advantage, momentum,
weather, etc. The players that then
take the field in the game in the software not only actually look like the
college players physically but also take on their mental makeup and tendencies.
Thanks to this incredible body of work, by simulating a team’s season,
you get an idea of how the year could go.
Of course, one simulation is just one take on the upcoming
year and could be greatly influenced by key injuries and a fluke upset.
These are very realistic and certainly reflective of what could happen in
a given season. However, it must be
understood that they are just one outcome or set of outcomes, and not
necessarily indicative of the true results.
To be more accurate and to be able to climb inside the variables process
so to speak and to utilize the full potential of those variables, one must run a
significant number of simulations. Each
simulation will of course be different, with a different group of injuries and
upsets. Together, though, they
represent a general average of essentially what E/A Sports believes to be how
the 2009 football season will go like. I
have found that a minimum of 50 simulations is required to get an idea of how
all the variables play out and to come up with an accurate prediction.
What I didn’t expect was how accurate those predictions
would be. In 2002, the software
predicted exactly
Boise
State
’s 11-1 season in the summer, months before the season began.
Each of the 12 games wound up with the same result as the E/A simulated
prediction. The simulations summary
predicted the Broncos would lose to
Arkansas
and win the rest of their games. Wow,
that seemed pretty neat. A lot of
prognosticators made predictions, but to accurately predict the winner in 12
games, especially for a team coming off an 8-4 season was something that made me
took notice. The software predicted
a 12-1 regular season in 2003 with the lone loss being to
Oregon
State
on the road. Lo and behold,
that’s exactly what happened. Coincidence?
Possibly, but when the software accurately forecast an 11-0
season in 2004, a 9-3 campaign in 2005 and a 12-0 season in 2006, with accurate
projections of each and every game, one would tend to discount the “luck”
aspect. To predict the winner of 60
games in a row or any college team would seem to indicate a degree of expertise
for which E/A Sports must be given credit. That
said, those predictions took a dive in 2007 when E/A predicted another
undefeated season only to see
Boise
State
lose to both
Washington
and
Hawai’i
. These two mistakes could show that
the people at E/A are human, or they could show that the Bronco team simply blew
it and lost games they really should have won.
That is a moot point, the results are simply added to the prediction
record and we move on.
The NCAA Football software once again was perfect last
season with a spotless 12-0 record predicting
Boise
State
games last season, bringing their seven-year record to 82-2.
There isn’t anything lucky about that.
So knowing of their great track record, yet also mindful that they
aren’t perfect, I again simulated the
Boise
State
season for this fall.
One peculiar omission was the lack of the Cal-Davis game on
the Broncos’ fall season in the software.
That is very unusual for these guys who are usually pay so much attention
to details. They got other things
wrong as well, raising eyebrows as to whether they are slipping.
Nonetheless, I ran the simulations and this is what I found:
Boise
State
’s average season, according to the folks at E.A Sports, was 10-2; adding what
logically would be a predicted win against Cal-Davis would put the Broncos at
11-2. There are two important and
very different results from these findings that you should know about.
While the average season came out 11-2,
Boise
State
is predicted to win all but one game. This
is simply a result of averages; a team’s average season is quickly brought
down when you mix in an undefeated season with a four-loss year.
What it does indicate is that there are several games in which upsets are
possible and the 2009 Bronco team must be ready each week.
While NCAA Football projects
Boise
State
to be the winner in all but one of these matchups, the number of losses in each
simulation was frankly surprising. Although
they are not the norm, these pesky deviations add up and are responsible for
only two unbeaten seasons. When you
view the simulation summary for each game, you will see the results of 61
simulations, that averaged together predict the winner as well as the average
score of the 61 simulations.
Another result to look at closely is the Western Athletic
Conference race.
Boise
State
won the WAC in 45 of 61 simulations.
Nevada
won the WAC title seven times,
Hawai’i
five times and
Fresno
State four. No other WAC school won
the league title in any simulation.
While I did not run extensive simulations on Boise State's opponents, I did a representative sample of their ending season record. Oregon had an average of 9.4 wins in 12 games, with a best of 12-0 and a BCS national championship game and a worst of 6-6. Miami of Ohio averaged 5.8 wins with a best season of 8-4 and a worst of 2-10.
Fresno State put together an average of 7.3 wins with a best year of 10-2 and 6-6 was their worst. Bowling Green didn't fare quite as well, but still a respectable 6.8 wins with 10-2 also being their best simulation and a worst season of 5-7. Tulsa averaged 5.2 wins in the simulations with their best being 6-6 and their worst 2-10.
Hawai'i is projected to have a good season, averaging 7.8 wins. The Rainbow Warriors put together an 11-1 season in one scenario and three 10-2's but their worst was 4-8. San Jose State averaged 3.4 wins this season with 2-10 being the most common. The Spartans did achieve 5-7 season in several simulations. Louisiana Tech is also expected to make a bowl game in most scenarios, averagin 7.1 wins. The Bulldogs had a best of 9-3 and a worst season of 5-7.
Idaho is projected to win 4.1 games this year, with 6-6 being the best they can hope for an 1-11 being a possibility as well. Utah State won an average of 2.2 games with 2-10 being the norm. They had little deviation from that, although they did enjoy a 4-8 season in one simulation.
Nevada averaged 7.1 wins in the simulations with 10-2 being the high and 5-7 the low. Finally, New Mexico State averaged 4.1 wins with 6-6 being their best season and 2-10 their worst.
Yet another interesting facet of the software is its
national rankings and bowl predictions.
Boise
State
enters the season #16 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll.
They are also #16 to begin the season in NCAA Football.
In 52 of the 61 simulations, the Broncos ended the year ranked in the Top
25. This year’s simulations marked
a first for the program. Never
before in history has
Boise
State
been ranked #1 for its current team. Often
in the “Dynasty” mode, the Broncos would be ranked on top at some point in
the future. Last year, the results
showed that
Boise
State
could be #1 this year. That is
indeed what occurred. In one
simulation the Broncos were #1 and in another they finished #2.
They played
Florida
in one
BCS
national championship game and TCU of all teams in the second—wouldn’t that
be a great repeat matchup?!
Boise
State
finished the regular season in the top five in 13 other simulations, for a
total of 15 out of 61 in the top five. The
team finished in the top ten 13 other times for a total of 28-61 (or nearly
half). In 30 of 61 simulations, the
Broncos received an invitation to a
BCS
Bowl. And keep in mind that in 28
of those simulations,
Boise
State
had one loss. That scenario may or
may not be reflective of the votes of the nation’s coaches should such an
outcome occur; it is what the software predicted.
As mentioned above, the software has thousands of variables
built into it each offseason, and relies largely on its player ratings to be
successful. If a team’s player
ratings are either generally low or high, it has a significant bearing on the
accuracy of the predictions. In the
past, E/A has done a magnificent job, but their success in predicting a team’s
future is only as good as their research.
For example,
Boise
State
is forecast to lose their season opener to
Oregon
. If this does not happen, it means
the player ratings were too low, which in turn means that they should beat the
remainder of their opponents by a larger-than-predicted margin.
The reverse is true if the Broncos were to lose to a different
opponent—that would mean the player ratings are too high and the remaining
games should be closer than originally predicted.
It’s all in good fun.
Below are the 12 games which E/A supplied the information
available for simulation with the results of each simulation and a brief summary
of those results.
Boise
State
vs.
Oregon
Thursday,
September 3
The favored #14 Ducks won in 45 if the 61 simulations.
The way to interpret that information is that
Oregon
has a 71.2% chance of winning and
Boise
State
’s chances are 28.8%. Each of the
individual outcomes below is a representation of what could happen.
Each is influenced by a key injury to either team, a breakdown in
coverage, a strategic success or failure by one of the two head coaches, etc.
When a team’s actual results come in and adjustments are made to the
player ratings to reflect those results, the average score of these simulations
gets fairly close. In the preseason,
it doesn’t mean much but I will show it for each game anyway.
In the opener,
Oregon
scored an average of 26.6 points to
Boise
State
’s 18.3. The biggest Bronco
victory was 35-3, while the largest
Oregon
margin of victory was 56-13. Sorry,
didn’t mean to depress everyone right off the bat.
The clarification is that the software has been wrong in two of 84 games
over the last seven years. If
Boise
State
wins, it means the software has underestimated how good the Broncos are this
fall or overestimated
Oregon
’s strength. In the two times that
EA was wrong in the last seven years, however, both Washington and Hawai’i won
a far-greater percentage of the simulations (over 45%) than Boise State did
against Oregon this year. Plus, Boise State has never won a game in which E/S Sports said they would lose. There's always a first time.
17-14
21-30-
22-40-
32-24
14-30-
17-36-
24-31-
3-17-
20-10
20-19
10-27-
17-34-
6-35-
17-20-
21-31-
7-30-
10-32-
29-42-
22-19
3-36-
26-21
25-44-
14-29-
36-9
10-27-
24-30-
6-31-
7-45-
13-24-
34-17
20-23 (OT)-
17-39-
20-34-
25-20
20-37-
3-17-
13-15-
35-3
27-17
24-30-
21-30-
13-17-
13-27-
10-30-
30-29
24-19
18-31-
24-10
20-23-
7-23-
7-27-
13-56-
13-34-
9-31-
24-34-
23-14
13-31-
40-21
7-17-
9-35-
13-40-
I also have some summaries of a few of the simulations. These are some of the possibilities:
Oregon 34, Boise State 24—Jeremiah Masoli threw three touchdown passes for Oregon, Austin Pettis (33 yards) and Titus Young (14 yards) had TD receptions for the Broncos.
Boise State 24, Oregon 10—Pettis had a 21-yard TD catch from Moore, who also had a quarterback sneak for a touchdown, while Jeremy Avery scored on a 69-yard run.
Oregon 30, Boise State 24—Oregon held a 23-7 halftime lead but had to hold on. Masoli tossed two TD passes and LeGarrette Blount had a 60-yard run for a score. Moore hit D.J. Harper and Young with scoring strikes and Avery had a four-yard touchdown.
Oregon 17, Boise State 13—The Broncos held a narrow 10-7 advantage at the half, but the Ducks scored on a nine-yard pass to Dickson and a field goal to win it.
Oregon 27, Boise State 13—The Broncos jumped out to a 10-0 lead but then Oregon woke up with 24 unanswered points. Masoli threw two touchdown passes and Blount scored on the ground
Oregon 30, Boise State 10—Masoli had two TD passes and a nine-yard run to pace the Ducks.
Boise State 30, Oregon 29—Oregon led a defensive struggle at the half, 13-7 and led 23-7 through three quarters. But then Brandyn Thompson picked off a Masoli pass and returned it 38 yards. Young hauled in a 52-yard pass from Mike Coughlin to make it 23-21 and, with the score Oregon 29, Boise State 23 (after a safety), the Broncos drove down the field with Coughlin hitting Pettis for the game-winning 37-yard touchdown pass.
Oregon 23, Boise State 20—Oregon had five field goals, including the 25-yard game-winner. Avery had a touchdown, but neither quarterback was successful. Moore was 22-53 while Masoli was 13-36 with two picks.
Oregon 34, Boise State 20—The Ducks outpaced Boise State 21-10 in the second half to win as Masoli threw four touchdown passes.
Boise State 17, Oregon 3—Moore threw touchdown passes to Shoemaker and Pettis.
Oregon 15, Boise State 13—Titus Young had a 94-yard kickoff return for a touchdown but the Ducks kicked five field goals.
Boise State 34, Oregon 3—Pettis grabbed three touchdown passes from Moore and Coughlin also threw two touchdown strikes.
Boise State 27, Oregon 17—Thompson burned Oregon with a 25-yard interception for a touchdown and Avery scampered for 80 yards for another score. Moore threw a short touchdown pass to Shoemaker.
Boise
State
vs.
Miami
of
Ohio
Saturday,
September 12
Although
Boise
State
is the overwhelming choice to win this game, again I was surprised by how many
wins Miami of Ohio had, especially considering it is at home.
Perhaps in many of those simulations,
Oregon
so beat up Bronco players that they were not in the lineup a week later.
Miami
won nine of the 61 simulations (14.8%). The
Broncos scored an average of 29.0 points to
Miami
’s 16.9. The biggest wins by
Miami
were 31-17 and 24-10 while
Boise
State
won simulations of 51-14 and 56-19.
35-38-
22-9
49-33
31-17
28-23
36-25
20-13
28-12
26-10
37-13
44-30
29-17
28-21
38-7
31-14
23-15
31-17
26-24
25-24
23-21
24-16
26-20
27-6
51-14
44-17
37-14
17-31-
16-7
23-28-
38-6
27-12
46-21
24-17
25-13
49-26
24-12
21-16
34-13
33-0
56-19
19-29-
27-7
21-29-
38-6
35-14
20-19
15-20-
35-12
30-21
33-24
26-7
10-17-
14-10
28-14
20-22-
23-20
37-14
10-24-
43-14
31-17
Boise
State
at
Fresno
State
Friday,
September 18
Boise
State
scored an average of 28 points to 18.2 for the Bulldogs.
That’s a little deceiving, because outside of
Oregon
, this is one of the teams that gave
Boise
State
the most trouble. On the few
occasions in which
Boise
State
did not win the WAC, it was often a loss to the Bulldogs that did them in.
The Broncos did win 46 of the simulations (75.4%) but
Fresno
State
got their share—15 wins.
Fresno
State
’s biggest win came in the first simulation you see below, 34-10.
Boise
State
pitched a shutout 45-0 for their biggest win of the 61 simulations.
10-34-
31-24
49-14
28-27
27-24
22-16
13-30-
33-14
26-34-
40-20
29-7
28-0
37-6
28-17
31-21
45-17
20-42-
21-6
41-7
23-6
30-14
32-15
45-7
35-44-
30-0
20-25-
19-24-
38-31
44-28
37-20
38-0
24-13
17-12
33-14
28-27
13-27-
45-0
28-3
31-19
44-21
13-20-
12-23-
27-21
23-21
27-17
13-22-
12-31
25-31-
13-17
27-13
34-20
19-23-
31-13
51-26
36-14
13-28-
37-14
10-24-
43-14
31-17
31-20
Boise
State
at
Bowling Green
Saturday,
September 26
Again I was surprised by the strength of yet another
Mid-American Conference foe. This
one is on the road, where
Bowling Green
was the winner of 13 of the simulations (21.3%).
Boise
State
won the simulations by an average score of 28.4-19.9.
The Broncos pummeled the Falcons 48-7 in one simulation while
Bowling Green
got the best of the Broncos 38-17 in another.
All of these results could happen given the variables in the computer;
none are outside the realm of possibility. By
averaging them in, however, we get a clear picture of what the projections are
saying.
48-14
9-29-
17-0
24-14
52-29
30-20
47-33
49-17
28-37-
43-34
33-28
38-22
45-38
41-16
38-21
27-20
51-31
31-20
24-23
34-17
34-24
22-24-
20-24-
30-5
31-7
15-12
27-24
27-31-
23-40-
31-20
40-14
31-30
40-21
30-24
48-7
30-6
24-17
32-31
15-24-
42-10
45-31
44-17
17-28-
17-38-
20-27-
26-7
26-14
14-35-
31-36-
31-17
14-28-
16-10
48-10
42-30
28-13
40-14
21-17
35-21
42-20
31-21
34-17
Boise
State
vs. UC-Davis
Saturday,
October 3
No data available
Boise
State
at
Tulsa
Wednesday,
October 14
Boise
State
won this matchup with 53 wins (86.9%), thought
Tulsa
won enough times (eight) to make a Golden Hurricane win more than just a random
possibility.
Boise
State
scored an average of 26.88 points in this matchup to 14.95 for
Tulsa
. The Broncos’ explosiveness
showed at times, with
Boise
State
winning 54-10, 51-3 and 42-0.
Tulsa
got in their licks too, to the tune of a 55-30 win in one simulation.
30-24
3-38-
38-17
21-24-
42-0
30-24
17-13
20-6
50-24
7-24-
44-27
37-28
42-10
19-3
28-10
38-22
48-7
27-21
23-13
27-16
20-17
21-14
16-18-
37-9
45-35
10-5
25-9
20-14
19-10
13-3
33-13
24-30-
31-3
45-10
41-21
30-10
34-10
20-17
30-27
31-6
31-6
54-10
30-55-
35-10
23-17
24-0
16-32-
31-14
21-17
31-28
34-13
21-24-
38-13
33-23
51-3
41-14
31-10
35-3
42-21
31-17
Boise
State
at
Hawai’i
Saturday,
October 24
Boise
State
won 43 of the 61 simulations, with
Hawai’i
winning a statistically significant 29.5% of the time.
The software has
Boise
State
scoring 28.4 points per simulation, which is oddly similar to the above
results.
Hawai’i
scored an average of 20.4 points. The
Rainbow Warriors scored their biggest win in a 48-20 victory, while
Boise
State
completely dominated one simulation 48-7.
25-31-
20-30-
24-27-
31-10
32-23
48-33
35-10
18-20-
16-14
20-48-
6-17-
32-40-
55-22
38-44-
44-28
29-17
41-17
24-27-
41-20
32-22
20-28-
19-13
43-7
36-31
51-31
37-23
44-6
27-39-
34-6
38-6
48-14
34-27
31-21
16-20-
47-17
48-7
31-38-
37-34
20-17
20-16
21-18
41-43-
41-13
27-34-
14-27-
33-26
23-16
16-14
34-31
17-20-
31-20
42-17
41-3
19-24-
27-13
37-27
35-10
38-18
35-28
31-14
Boise
State
vs.
San Jose
State
Saturday,
October 31
Boise
State
won 58 of 61 simulations (95.1%), meaning the Spartans have a 4.9% chance of
winning.
San Jose
State
won one simulation 35-21 while the Broncos smothered the Spartans 62-10 for
their biggest win of the series. The
average score was 38.9-14.3. It is
worth noting that the Broncos had four shutouts in the simulations, meaning that
they have a better chance of blanking
San Jose
State
than the Spartans do of winning.
31-10
43-10
48-6
24-14
39-0
55-16
34-0
43-7
34-3
48-10
21-35-
28-21
44-7
48-23
45-10
30-17
45-19
38-14
35-24
38-19
13-20-
62-10
41-7
21-16
35-31
42-7
41-7
31-14
44-0
28-7
49-16
40-17
26-21
38-14
45-24
44-3
59-38
37-10
42-3
29-14
37-17
31-13
20-24-
45-10
47-21
56-10
26-20
48-16
41-17
34-3
39-7
51-10
33-3
48-0
29-20
52-17
47-7
49-21
35-21
34-20
35-21
Boise
State
at
Louisiana
Tech
Friday,
November 6
This one was a surprise but for a different reason than
some of the above. With all of the
hype surrounding the Bulldogs, I would have expected more wins from them; they
were able to manage five. It
doesn’t mean they couldn’t or won’t win, just that their chances are 8.2%.
The Broncos took the Dogs by an average of 30.8-18.7.
Tech’s biggest win was 37-17, while
Boise
State
blasted the Bulldogs 62-10 in another simulation.
14-21-
38-17
41-16
44-17
42-23
34-24
36-16
38-3
38-20
36-27
35-30
17-14
33-3
23-0
28-7
34-17
51-21
38-16
16-31-
27-24
28-9
18-6
28-21
20-17
55-21
36-17
62-14
24-17
27-20
38-31
49-28
38-7
35-21
40-28
53-29
35-25
56-20
24-14
38-7
31-28
44-21
38-7
37-27
30-23
24-14
38-14
17-37-
34-21
19-13
25-30-
14-28-
31-26
25-10
35-3
35-33
31-13
41-21
35-17
34-28
35-20
42-10
Boise
State
vs.
Idaho
Saturday,
November 14
Idaho
managed just one win in 61 simulations, 31-27, for a 1.6% chance of winning.
Boise
State
’s biggest win was 62-16. The
average score was 40.2 to 16.0.
30-7
27-10
62-16
30-26
49-17
45-13
31-16
31-7
62-17
49-7
55-30
33-16
24-17
52-17
30-20
32-21
62-31
56-17
27-5
52-28
35-30
31-24
27-31-
41-3
27-17
27-11
34-17
46-23
49-28
32-21
55-10
38-7
31-24
48-3
52-28
31-21
34-0
39-10
45-13
31-28
36-6
48-10
45-13
35-14
48-12
51-10
47-17
14-7
24-3
19-10
33-3
38-16
49-17
48-27
22-10
34-13
55-10
49-28
63-14
56-21
49-20
Boise
State
at
Utah
State
Friday,
November 20
Utah
State
also won just one of 61 simulations, a 39-36 win in overtime towards the end of
my work. The Broncos won by an
average count of 40.9-11.9.
Boise
State
’s biggest win was 55-3.
39-8
22-9
31-21
48-20
40-28
34-6
34-18
31-12
40-10
29-0
44-10
51-13
59-13
31-0
40-14
36-0
41-0
44-13
41-23
48-9
30-10
27-24
44-21
36-14
37-3
42-3
38-20
37-7
40-13
53-31
39-17
48-0
55-3
24-16
42-3
38-10
35-6
35-6
38-9
66-17
34-0
45-7
48-0
44-10
37-14
41-0
42-10
45-16
41-6
37-10
48-13
36-39 OT-
38-3
50-19
56-14
38-28
35-10
41-21
44-17
49-21
56-10
Boise
State
vs.
Nevada
Friday,
November 27
Although
Boise
State
won the vast majority of the simulations 78.7% of the time),
Nevada
garnered enough wins (13) to make Bronco fans nervous.
Still, it is interesting that even though the Wolf Pack finished second
to
Boise
State
in WAC Championships with seven titles in 61 simulations,
Nevada
did not beat
Boise
State
head-to-head as often as either
Fresno
State
or
Hawai’i
. Further, the times
Nevada
did win, it often resulted in a WAC
title for
Fresno
State
or
Hawai’i
rather than translating into a Wolf Pack championship.
What a
Nevada
win did do was occasionally ruin a
Boise
State undefeated season. Chris
Ault’s team scored a 31-7 win over Boise State for their biggest margin of
victory while the Broncos managed a 52-10 win over Nevada.
Most of these, however, were tight.
22 of the 61 simulations were decided by seven or fewer points.
Boise
State
scored an average of 32.8 points to 19.7 for the Wolf Pack.
23-28-
52-45
36-39-
13-24-
41-20
27-21
24-27-
34-24
31-13
39-7
34-29
24-17
34-10
26-21
31-21
40-10
52-10
38-7
45-25
31-24
36-17
34-24
49-17
26-23
42-19
13-10
34-0
17-24-
16-21-
35-28
42-7
35-29
30-7
35-10
34-16
13-20-
27-34-
45-17
21-27-
41-17
39-15
37-13
28-9
51-21
13-16-
34-27
7-31-
38-10
44-17
26-42-
40-23
34-17
28-3
38-10
42-10
26-21
35-30
28-31-
44-14
35-24
42-31
Boise
State
vs.
New Mexico
State
Saturday,
December 5
New Mexico
State
did the same thing that
Idaho
and
Utah
State
did in this set of simulations—they won one time against
Boise
State
, by a score of 17-14.
Boise
State
’s biggest win was 60-10. The
Broncos scored an average of 38.6 points per simulation to 11.8 for the Aggies.
37-31
27-17
37-14
49-28
38-10
20-15
30-6
45-10
30-12
21-14
52-13
38-31
39-13
48-6
41-10
34-10
44-20
38-14
45-20
38-6
28-17
28-0
54-7
54-14
32-31
34-0
52-7
45-10
19-14
43-14
46-13
45-0
14-17-
34-18
23-13
21-7
40-6
38-12
42-13
44-3
37-7
28-10
34-9
23-6
47-21
25-22
42-3
33-13
40-10
40-10
44-6
24-3
48-3
49-3
44-10
34-3
42-3
60-10
56-14
49-21
42-14