It seems that this year’s
Boise
State
football team has much in common with past teams that went to
BCS
(Bowl Championship Series) bowl games—namely close calls.
Boise
State
’s hard-fought victory over
Tulsa
prompted a check to see if every team that has made a
BCS
Bowl since the system began in 1998 has blown by every opponent on the
schedule.
Tulsa
is the #32-rated college football team according to Kenneth Massey, whose
computer model is one of six that the
BCS
committee selected to use in determining the
BCS
Standings.
To my amazement, almost no team has ever gone through an
entire schedule without a close call or two.
Many of the 94
BCS
Bowl teams did not even go undefeated. Some
of them lost two games, some lost three games, and there's even examples of BCS Bowl teams that lost four games!
Several have had close calls against so-called non-AQ teams (including
from the Western Athletic Conference), or teams from conferences that the
BCS
Committee deems are not worthy of automatic qualification into
BCS
Bowl games.
A few of the
BCS
Bowl teams have lost to these non-AQ teams.
Many of the major bowl participants had close calls against mediocre
teams as well as opponents with losing records.
More interestingly, teams that have played in the so-called “national
championship game” have lost games.
There have been 47
BCS
bowl games, including “national championship games” since 1998 for a total
of 94 teams. One of the important
findings in the study was that there appears to be zero correlation between
the number of “close calls” that a team has and their performance in a
BCS
Bowl game.
Florida
State
, for example, had just one performance that wasn’t a substantial win—a 24-7
loss to 7-5
North Carolina
State
. They promptly lost in the mythical
“national championship game” 23-16 to
Tennessee
. The 1999 Rose Bowl Champion
Wisconsin team lost to a non-AQ team (
Cincinnati
, which went 3-8 that season by a score of 17-12.
They also lost 21-16 to
Michigan
and won two tight games—against
Minnesota
20-17 and 7-5 Purdue 28-21. Yet
they dominated the Rose Bowl, bouncing Stanford 22-9.
Talk about close calls.
The 1999
Michigan
team was wrought with them. In
addition to two losses (
Michigan
State
and
Illinois
), the Wolverines won a whopping six games by a touchdown or less.
Michigan barely beat a 5-7 Notre Dame team 26-22, escaped with an 18-13
victory over a mediocre (7-5) Syracuse team 18-13, edged Wisconsin 21-16,
survived a 34-31 scare from 4-7 Indiana, nudged Penn State 31-27 and barely
knocked off a 6-6 Ohio State team 24-17. All
of that, and
Michigan
still found itself in a
BCS
Bowl game. In the Orange Bowl,
Michigan
beat
Alabama
35-34.
Alabama
itself had plenty of close calls. The
Crimson Tide lost to
Tennessee
as well as to Louisiana Tech, a non-AQ team.
Nevertheless, there was plenty of forgiveness for the Tide.
They also beat
Arkansas
35-28,
Florida
40-39, and
Mississippi
30-24 and had to struggle mightily for a 23-17 win over a 3-8 LSU team.
There are numerous other examples of winning
BCS
Bowl teams that struggled throughout the season.
The 2000 Rose Bowl Champion Washington team won no less than seven games
by a touchdown or less in addition to a loss to
Oregon
. The 2001 Fiesta Bowl Champion
Oregon Ducks had five nail-biters in addition to a loss to Stanford, including
three narrow wins over teams that were .500 or less.
Georgia
’s Sugar Bowl Champion team of 2002 won five close games (including two over
mediocre teams), and also lost a game to
Florida
.
Ohio
State
won six games that same year by seven or less points, including four games in
which they had to struggle to beat mediocre teams.
Yet the Buckeyes were placed in the “national championship game”,
which they won.
The following year,
Ohio
State
lost two games, including a 17-10 defeat at the hands of
Wisconsin
(7-6). They beat non-AQ
San Diego
State by the grand total of 16-13.
San Diego
State
would finish the year 6-6. And the
game was in
Columbus
! They beat non-AQ
Bowling Green
24-17 and squeaked out three other close games.
But
Ohio
State
was in the Fiesta Bowl nonetheless, where they won.
If merit was judged by close games,
Michigan
was the far better team in 2006. The
Wolverines lost a game to
Ohio
State
and had just one close call that year, a 17-10 win over
Penn
State
. USC, meanwhile, had two
losses—to 7-6 UCLA 13-9 and to
Oregon
State
33-31. The Trojans beat a 6-6
Washington
State
team 28-22 and survived a 26-20 win over 5-7
Washington
. If we went by those criteria,
Michigan
was far more deserving and should have dominated.
The final score: USC 32,
Michigan
18.
Just last season, Virginia Tech had four losses but still
found itself in the Orange Bowl. The
Hokies lost to non-AQ East
Carolina
27-22. They also lost to Miami of
Florida 16-14 as
Miami
finished the year 7-6. They fell to
Florida
State
and
Boston
College
. They also had three victories that
came down to the final play. But
Virginia Tech was in a
BCS
Bowl, by golly, and they won 20-7 over
Cincinnati
.
Virginia Tech had no losses or even close games in 1999,
yet in the “national championship game”, they were thumped by
Florida
State
46-29.
It is evident, therefore, that close calls have absolutely
nothing to do with worthiness of a
BCS
Bowl, nor with how that team will perform in the major bowl.
Here is the breakdown of losses and close calls that each
BCS
Bowl team has had since 1998.
Close calls against mediocre or worse opponents or non-AQ
opponents are underlined. Losses are
highlighted in red.
(If close calls have anything to do with qualifying for
BCS
Bowls, seems like
Boise
State
is headed for a great year in 2009!)
1998
Rose Bowl:
Wisconsin
38, UCLA 31
Wisconsin
won at 4-7
Indiana
24-20
Beat 9-4 Purdue 31-24
Lost at 10-3
Michigan
27-10
UCLA beat 8-4
Oregon
41-38
Beat 3-8 Stanford 28-24
Won at 5-6
Oregon
State
41-31
Lost at 9-3
Miami
of
Florida
49-45
Orange Bowl:
Florida
31,
Syracuse
10
Florida
lost at 9-3
Tennessee
20-17
Won at 10-3
Alabama
16-10
Lost at 12-0
Florida
State
23-12
Syracuse
lost to 13-0
Tennessee
34-33
Lost to 7-5
North Carolina
State
38-17
Lost to 8-4
West Virginia
35-28
Beat 9-3 Virginia Tech 28-26
Sugar Bowl:
Ohio
State
24,
Texas
A & M 14
Ohio
State
lost to 6-6
Michigan
State
28-24
Texas A & M lost to 11-2
Florida
State
23-14
Beat 4-7
Kansas
24-21
Beat 7-5
Texas
Tech 17-10
Beat 8-4
Missouri
17-14
Lost to 9-3
Texas
26-24
“National
Championship” (Fiesta Bowl):
Tennessee
23,
Florida
State
16
Tennessee
beat 8-4
Syracuse
34-33
Beat 10-2
Florida
20-17
Beat 9-3
Arkansas
28-24
Florida
State
lost at 7-5
North Carolina
State
24-7
1999
Rose Bowl:
Wisconsin
22, Stanford 9
Wisconsin
lost at non-AQ
Cincinnati
(3-8) 17-12
Lost to 10-2
Michigan
21-16
Won at 8-4
Minnesota
20-17
Won at 7-5 Purdue 28-21
Stanford lost at 9-5
Texas
69-17
Lost at non-AQ
San Jose
State
of the WAC (3-7) 44-39
Beat 7-5
Oregon
State
21-17
Beat 6-6 USC 35-31
Lost at 7-5
Washington
35-30
Beat 5-7 Notre Dame 40-37
Orange Bowl:
Michigan
35,
Alabama
34
Michigan
beat 5-7 Notre Dame 26-22
Won at 7-5
Syracuse
18-13
Won at 10-2
Wisconsin
21-16
Lost at 10-2
Michigan
State
34-31
Lost to 8-4
Illinois
35-29
Won at 4-7
Indiana
34-31
Won at 10-3
Penn
State
31-27
Beat 6-6
Ohio
State
24-17
Alabama
lost to non-AQ
Louisiana
Tech (8-3) 29-28
Beat 8-4
Arkansas
35-28
Won at 9-4
Florida
40-39
Won at 8-4
Mississippi
30-24
Lost to 9-3
Tennessee
21-7
Beat 3-8 LSU 23-17
Fiesta Bowl:
Nebraska
31,
Tennessee
21
Nebraska
beat non-AQ
Southern Mississippi
(9-3) 20-13
Lost at 9-5
Texas
24-20
Won at 5-7
Kansas
24-17
Won at 7-5
Colorado
33-30
Tennessee
lost to 9-4
Florida
23-21
Beat non-AQ
Memphis
(5-6) 17-16
Lost at 8-4
Arkansas
28-24
“National
Championship” (Sugar Bowl):
Florida
State
46, Virginia Tech 29
Florida
State
beat 8-4 Georgia Tech 41-35
Won at 6-6 Clemson 17-14
Won at 9-4
Florida
30-23
Virginia Tech: No
close calls
2000
Rose Bowl:
Washington 34, Purdue 24
Washington
beat 11-1 Miami of Florida34-29
Won
at 3-8
Colorado
17-14
Lost at 10-2
Oregon
23-16
Beat 11-1
Oregon
State
33-30
Won at 6-6
Arizona
State
21-15
Won at 5-6 Stanford 31-28
Beat 5-6
Arizona
35-32
Beat 6-6 UCLA 35-28
Purdue lost at 9-3 Notre Dame
23-21
Lost at 5-7
Penn
State
22-20
Beat 9-3
Michigan
32-31
Won at 9-4
Wisconsin
30-24
Beat 8-4
Ohio
State
31-27
Lost
at 5-6
Michigan
State
30-10
Sugar Bowl:
Miami
of
Florida
37,
Florida
20
Miami
lost at 11-1
Washington
34-29
Won at 11-2
Florida
State
27-24
Florida
won at 8-4
Tennessee
27-23
Lost at 8-4
Mississippi
State
47-35
Lost
at 11-2
Florida
State
30-7
Fiesta Bowl:
Oregon
State
41, Notre Dame 9
Oregon
State
beat Division I-AA
Eastern Washington
21-19
Lost at 11-1
Washington
33-30
Won at 6-6 UCLA 44-38
Won at 3-8
California
38-32
Notre Dame won at 9-5 Georgia Tech 14-10
Lost to 11-2
Michigan
47-21
Won at 4-8
Michigan
State
40-37
Beat 7-6 UCLA 20-17
Lost at 11-3 USC 44-24
“National
Championship” (
Orange
Bowl):
Oklahoma
13,
Florida
State
2
Oklahoma
won at 8-4 Texas A & M 35-31
Won at 4-7
Oklahoma
State
12-7
Florida
State
beat 9-3 Georgia Tech 26-21
Lost at 11-1
Miami
of
Florida
27-24
2001
Orange Bowl:
Florida
56,
Maryland
23
Florida
lost at 7-5
Auburn
23-20
Lost to 11-2
Tennessee
34-32
Maryland
won at 6-5
Wake
Forest
27-20
Won at 8-5 Georgia Tech 20-17
Lost at 8-4
Florida
State
52-31
Won at 7-5
North Carolina
State
23-19
Sugar Bowl:
LSU 47,
Illinois
34
LSU lost at 10-2
Tennessee
26-18
Lost to 10-2
Florida
45-14
Beat 2-9
Kentucky
29-25
Lost to 7-4
Mississippi
35-24
Beat 7-5
Arkansas
41-38
Illinois
beat non-AQ
Northern Illinois
(6-5) 17-12
Won at 8-4
Michigan
45-20
Beat 5-7
Wisconsin
42-35
Beat 5-6
Penn
State
33-28
Beat 4-7 Northwestern 34-28
Fiesta Bowl:
Oregon
38,
Colorado
16
Oregon
beat 5-7
Wisconsin
31-28
Beat 6-6 USC 24-22
Lost to 9-3 Stanford 49-42
Won at 10-2
Washington
State
24-17
Won at 7-4 UCLA 21-20
Beat 5-6
Oregon
State
17-14
Colorado
lost to non-AQ
Fresno
State
(11-3) of the WAC 24-22
Lost to 11-2
Texas
41-17
Won at 4-7
Oklahoma
State
22-19
Beat 11-2
Texas
39-37
“National
Championship” (Rose Bowl):
Miami
of
Florida
37,
Nebraska
14
Miami
beat 8-4 Virginia Tech 26-24
Nebraska
lost at 10-3
Colorado
62-36
2002
Rose Bowl:
Oklahoma
34,
Washington
14
Oklahoma
won at 5-7
Missouri
31-24
Lost at 6-6
Texas
A & M 30-26
Lost at 8-5
Oklahoma
State
38-28
Washington
State
lost at 14-0
Ohio
State
25-7
Beat 11-2 USC 30-27
Lost to 7-6
Washington
29-26
Orange Bowl:
USC 38,
Iowa
17
USC won at 11-2
Kansas
State
27-27
Lost at 10-3
Washington
State
30-27
Beat 7-5
California
30-28
Iowa
won at non-AQ
Miami
of
Ohio
(7-5) 29-24
Lost to 7-7
Iowa
State
36-31
Beat 9-4
Penn
State
42-35
Beat 7-6 Purdue 31-28
Sugar Bowl:
Georgia
26,
Florida
State
13
Georgia
beat 7-6 Clemson 31-28
Won at 5-7
South Carolina
13-7
Beat 10-3
Alabama
27-25
Beat 8-5
Tennessee
18-13
Lost to 8-5
Florida
20-13
Won at 9-4
Auburn
24-21
Florida
State
beat 7-7
Iowa
State
38-31
Lost at non-AQ
Louisville
(7-6) 26-20
Lost at 12-1
Miami
of
Florida
28-27
Lost to 10-3 Notre Dame 34-24
Lost at 11-3
North Carolina
State
17-7
“National
Championship” (Fiesta Bowl):
Ohio
State
31,
Miami
of
Florida
24
Ohio
State
beat non-AQ
Cincinnati
(7-7) 23-19
Beat 8-6
Wisconsin
19-14
Beat 9-4
Penn
State
13-7
Beat 7-6 Purdue 10-6
Beat 5-7
Illinois
23-16
Beat 10-3
Michigan
14-9
Miami
beat 9-5
Florida
State
28-27
Beat 9-4
Pittsburgh
28-21
2003
Rose Bowl:
USC 28,
Michigan
14
USC won at 8-6
California
34-31
Michigan
lost at 8-5
Oregon
31-27
Lost at 10-3
Iowa
30-27
Won at 10-3
Minnesota
38-35
Won at 8-5
Michigan
State
27-20
Orange Bowl:
Miami
of
Florida
16,
Florida
State 14
Miami
beat 8-5
Florida
38-33
Beat 8-5
West Virginia
22-20
Lost at 8-5 Virginia Tech 31-7
Lost at 10-3
Tennessee
10-6
Beat 6-6
Syracuse
17-10
Florida
State
beat 7-6 Georgia Tech 14-13
Lost to 11-2
Miami
of
Florida
22-14
Beat 8-5
Virginia
19-14
Lost at 9-4 Clemson 26-10
Won
at 8-5
Florida
38-34
Fiesta Bowl:
Ohio
State
35,
Kansas
State
28
Ohio
State
beat non-AQ
San Diego
State
(6-6) 16-13
Beat 8-5
North Carolina
State
44-38
Beat non-AQ
Bowling Green
(11-3) 24-17
Lost
to 7-6
Wisconsin
17-10
Beat 3-9
Penn
State
21-20
Beat 9-4 Purdue 16-13
Lost to 10-3
Michigan
35-21
“National
Championship” (Sugar Bowl): LSU
21,
Oklahoma
14
LSU beat 11-3
Georgia
17-10
Lost to 8-5
Florida
19-7
Beat 10-3
Mississippi
17-14
Oklahoma
won at 4-9
Alabama
20-13
Lost to 11-4
Kansas
State
35-7
2004
Rose Bowl:
Texas
38,
Michigan
37
Texas
won at 5-6
Arkansas
22-20
Lost to 12-1
Oklahoma
12-0
Won at 4-7
Kansas
27-23
Michigan
lost at 6-6 Notre Dame 28-20
Beat non-AQ
San Diego
State
(4-7) 24-21
Beat 7-5
Minnesota
27-24
Won at 7-5 Purdue 16-14
Lost at 8-4
Ohio
State
37-21
Sugar Bowl:
Auburn
16, Virginia Tech 13
Auburn
beat 9-3 LSU 10-9
Virginia Tech lost to 13-0 USC
24-13
Lost to 5-6
North Carolina
State
17-16
Beat 8-4
West Virginia
19-13
Won
at 4-7
Wake
Forest
17-10
Won at 6-6
North Carolina
27-24
Won at 9-3
Miami
of
Florida
16-10
Fiesta Bowl:
Utah
35,
Pittsburgh
7
Utah
—no close calls
Pittsburgh
lost to 5-6
Nebraska
24-17
Beat I-AA Furman 41-38
Lost at 8-4
Connecticut
29-17
Won at 2-9
Temple
27-22
Beat 9-3
Boston
College
20-17
Lost at 6-6
Syracuse
38-31
Won at 6-6 Notre Dame 41-38
Beat 8-4
West Virginia
16-13
“National
Championship” (
Orange
Bowl):
USC 55,
Oklahoma
14
USC won at 4-7 Stanford 31-28
Beat 10-2
California
23-17
Won at 7-5
Oregon
State
28-20
Won at 6-6 UCLA 29-24
Oklahoma
won at 7-5
Oklahoma
State
38-35
Won at 7-5
Texas
A & M 42-35
2005
Sugar Bowl:
West Virginia
38,
Georgia
35
Georgia
beat 7-5
South Carolina
17-15
Beat 4-7
Arkansas
23-20
Lost to 9-3
Florida
14-10
Lost to 9-3
Auburn
31-30
Won at 7-5 Georgia Tech 14-7
Orange Bowl:
Penn
State
26,
Florida
State
23
Penn
State
won at 7-5 Northwestern 34-29
Beat 10-2
Ohio
State
17-10
Lost at 7-5
Michigan
27-25
Florida
State
beat 9-3 Miami of Florida 10-7
Lost to 7-5
Virginia
26-21
Lost to 7-5
North Carolina
State
20-15
Lost at 8-4 Clemson35-14
Lost at 9-3
Florida
34-7
Fiesta Bowl:
Ohio
State
34, Notre Dame 20
Ohio
State
lost to 13-0
Texas
25-22
Lost at 11-1
Penn
State
17-10
Won at 7-5
Michigan
25-21
“National
Championship” (Rose Bowl):
Texas
41, USC 38
Texas
won at 10-2
Ohio
State
25-22
USC won at 3-9 Notre Dame 34-31
2006
Fiesta
Bowl:
Boise
State
43,
Oklahoma
42
Boise
State
won at non-AQ
Wyoming
(6-6) 17-10
Beat non-AQ
Hawai’i
(11-3) 41-34
Won at non-AQ
San Jose
State
(9-4) 23-20
Oklahoma
beat non-AQ
Alabama
-
Birmingham
(3-9) 24-17
Lost to 7-6
Oregon
34-33
Lost to 10-3
Texas
28-10
Won at 9-4
Texas
A & M 17-16
Won at 7-6
Oklahoma
State
27-21
Rose Bowl:
USC 32,
Michigan
18
USC won at 6-6
Washington
State
28-22
Beat 5-7
Washington
26-20
Beat 7-6